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Date submitted2023-11-01
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Date accepted2024-05-02
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Date published2024-12-25
Improving the procedure for group expert assessment in the analysis of professional risks in fuel and energy companies
The lack of a unified approach to the assessment of professional risks in fuel and energy companies (FEC) in the national regulatory environment and a high degree of subjectivity of the results of hazard identification and risk assessment makes mathematically sound recruitment of an expert group urgent and necessary. The article presents the results of a comprehensive study on hazard identification and risk assessment at 6,105 workplaces in 24 branches of a FEC company based on the application of the expert assessment method and a scientifically sound qualitative and quantitative selection of experts. The priority vectors of factors are determined, global priorities are calculated, the size of the expert group (15 persons) is determined and mathematically substantiated for carrying out hazard identification and risk assessment at workplaces with sufficient reliability of results. For the first time, a set of factors characterizing the FEC companies that influence the determination of professional competence of experts is proposed. The formed expert group presented more precise, objective and consistent results of risk assessment. Standards for free distribution of personal protective equipment (PPE) and wash-off agents to 7,234 company employees for implementation and trial use were developed. A fragment of the results obtained for a driller's workplace is presented. This approach allows a significant increase in objectivity and efficiency of the professional risk management system and provision of the PPE to employees in the concept of a risk-oriented approach helping to prevent industrial injuries and improve the level of occupational safety culture in fuel and energy companies taking into account global practice.
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Date submitted2024-03-07
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Date accepted2024-06-14
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Date published2024-07-04
Anomaly detection in wastewater treatment process for cyber resilience risks evaluation
Timely detection and prevention of violations in the technological process of wastewater treatment caused by threats of different nature is a highly relevant research problem. Modern systems are equipped with a large number of technological sensors. Data from these sensors can be used to detect anomalies in the technological process. Their timely detection, prediction and processing ensures the continuity and fault tolerance of the technological process. The aim of the research is to improve the accuracy of detection of such anomalies. We propose a methodology for the identification and subsequent assessment of cyber resilience risks of the wastewater treatment process, which includes the distinctive procedure of training dataset generation and the anomaly detection based on deep learning methods. The availability of training datasets is a necessary condition for the efficient application of the proposed technology. A distinctive feature of the anomaly detection approach is a new method of processing input sensor data, which allows the use of computationally efficient analytical models with high accuracy of anomaly detection, and outperforms the efficiency of previously published methods.
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Date submitted2024-02-01
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Date accepted2024-05-02
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Date published2024-06-18
Methodology for managing energy development of production facilities in the gas industry
- Authors:
- Anatolii A. Shapovalo
The current stage of Russia's development is characterized by dynamic changes in the operating conditions of gas industry enterprises, which leads, among other things, to significant adjustments in approaches to the development of energy production facilities. The article examines on the system level the ways to improve energy supply, taking into account the goals and objectives of the development of production facilities from the conditions of solving a single technological problem of the gas industry – high-quality gas supply to consumers. The optimal functioning of energy supply systems, taking into account the peculiarities of technological processes at production facilities, presupposes the development models coordination of production facilities energy complexes with the gas industry enterprises parameters based on an integrated unified information space at all stages of their life cycle. The structure of production facility energy complex and the connections of its elements with related systems are justified taking into account the purposes of their creation and the requirements for production facilities. Problem solving for each system element as well as the exchange of information between equivalent systems is done on the basis of a developed hierarchy of optimization problems adjusted depending on the type of tasks of energy supply improvement of a production facility. Determining the values of parameters and indicators of energy complexes, as well as optimizing the lists and content of work to improve the energy supply of production facilities, is planned to be carried out in accordance with the methodology under consideration using a set of mathematical models.
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Date submitted2022-10-13
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Date accepted2023-10-11
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Date published2023-10-27
An innovative approach to injury prevention in mining companies through human factor management
This study argues that human error has an effect on occupational injury risks in mining companies. It shows through an analysis of existing approaches to occupational risk assessment that it is necessary to develop a quantitative assessment method factoring in individual psychophysiological attributes in order to analyze injury risks posed to miners. The article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of how workers’ psychophysiological attributes influence their susceptibility to occupational injuries in underground mining conditions. By utilizing statistical data processing methods, such as discriminant and regression analysis, the study develops models to forecast personal injury risks among miners. These quantitative models underlie the proposed method for assessing miners’ susceptibility to injuries. The study outlines an algorithm for the practical application of this method and shows how the method was validated using a training sample. It provides recommendations for managing the human factor, incorporating the results of the proposed method, and emphasizes the importance of implementing a series of protective measures to mitigate the risk of occupational injuries in underground mining operations.
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Date submitted2022-04-03
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Date accepted2023-03-02
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Date published2023-12-25
Specifics of geotechnical risk control in the design of underground structures
The underground space development is associated with the emergence of complex and dangerous situations, often leading to accidents. The condition for their development is the potential geotechnical risks. High-quality execution and analysis of design work at all the stages of design, starting from the early stages, is one of the effective ways to control risks. Clarification of the characteristics and features of the rock mass adjacent to the projected underground structure makes it possible to identify the potential cause of the occurrence of an adverse event with a certain probability during the construction and operation of an underground structure. The purpose of a qualitative risk analysis is to identify risk factors in underground construction. The value of the total geotechnical risk, expressed by the sum of each of the possible risks, should be numerically estimated at the design stage of a specific underground facility. At the same time, it is extremely important to develop a methodology for managing geotechnical risks, which would make it possible to assess their probability of development at an early stage of project preparation and propose measures to reduce or prevent them. This technique is given in the article. The results of the study conducted in accordance with the presented methodology showed that geotechnical risk control proved an effective method in preventing accidents during underground construction.
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Date submitted2022-07-15
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Date accepted2022-12-13
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Date published2023-02-27
Assessment of the efficiency of occupational safety culture management in fuel and energy companies
The results of development, testing and implementation of the process of occupational safety culture management in a fuel and energy company including the assessment of current state, assessment of deviation, formation of control action and its implementation are presented. Using the methods of mathematical analysis, the components of occupational safety culture and criteria for their evaluation were developed. As a control action, a procedure for conducting behavioural safety audit was elaborated and implemented. Proceeding from the results of analysing average ratings of safety culture components among the employees prior to and after the introduction of behavioural safety audit, it was concluded that there was a statistically significant increase in the average values of 12 out of 16 ratings of safety culture components. Analysis of the results of 1,011 audits showed the absence of an “alarm area” at the enterprise. Introduction of the developed process management model promotes an increase in the efficiency of attaining a high level of occupational safety culture in fuel and energy companies.
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Date submitted2021-06-01
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Date accepted2021-07-27
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Date published2021-10-21
Indicator assessment of the reliability of mine ventilation and degassing systems functioning
- Authors:
- Nina O. Kaledina
- Valentina A. Malashkina
The gas emission control in the mines is operated by ventilation and degassing systems that ensure the aerological safety of the mines or minimize the aerological risks. The ventilation system of the mine and its individual sites includes a significant number of technical devices and equipment, and the air tubes are mainly mining workings, the condition of which determines the quality of the ventilation network (its capacity) and depends on a number of mining factors. Similarly, one of the most important elements of the degassing system, which includes its own chain of technological equipment, are wells, and in some cases, mining workings. Thus, mine ventilation and degassing systems cannot be attributed to purely technical systems, since they include mining elements characterized by high variability of the determining parameters. To assess their reliability, it is necessary to use various combined methods that include additional characteristics in relation to the mining component. At the same time, the reliability of technical devices that ensure the functioning of mine ventilation and degassing systems largely determines the efficiency (stability and reliability) of these systems and, consequently, affects the level of aerological risks. The described approach to assessing the reliability of ventilation and degassing systems of coal mines when analyzing aerological risks is based on the developed system of risk indicators for the methane factor and will allow determining the risk dynamics in automatic mode based on monitoring the parameters of the ventilation and degassing system state.
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Date submitted2019-06-30
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Date accepted2019-09-10
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Date published2019-12-24
Industrial safety principles in coal mining
- Authors:
- E. N. Chemezov
The article provides a description of injuries in coal mining enterprises in Russia. The high injury rate causes the need of developing new effective ways and means of improving safety at mining enterprises. Recently in Russia there has been a tendency for a slight decrease in fatal injuries, which indicates some progress in prevention of industrial accidents. At the same time, the problem of improving the working conditions of coal miners, reducing the level of injuries and occupational diseases in this industry remains a very urgent task. Ensuring safe operation and industrial health and safety is not only reasonable economic policy but one of the constitutional human rights. At Russian coal mining enterprises, they take measures to reduce injuries, the supervisory authorities and employees of the enterprises carry out certain work to comply with safety requirements. However, significant success has not yet been achieved. Despite the fatal injuries and accidents, the issue of industrial mining safety is not becoming a top priority. Occupational safety measures are often financed on a «left-over» principle, and therefore remain not implemented. Many managers do not pay enough attention to safety issues and have little control over the planned activities in this area. The article analyzes the causes of injuries and proposes the key directions for creating normal working conditions in coal mining enterprises.
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Date submitted2019-03-17
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Date accepted2019-05-21
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Date published2019-08-23
Impact of External Factors on National Energy Security
- Authors:
- V. L. Ulanov
- E. Yu. Ulanova
The article examines both external and internal threats to national energy security, formulates the tasks of increasing energy security, discloses modern challenges, as well as measures to level them. In recent years, Russian economy has felt the growing influence of external threats and risks: unfair competition in world markets, high politicization of energy issues, and attempts to prevent Russia from monetizing national energy reserves. Influence of the use of renewable energy sources on national energy security, growth of liquefied natural gas production, stricter environmental requirements, changes in the demand for petroleum products, and introduction of anti-Russian sanctions are analyzed. The influence of internal risks is no less significant: quality of hydrocarbon reserves in the Russian Federation is declining, effectiveness of geological exploration is insufficient, and the share of hard-to-recover reserves is increasing. Energy security assessments are recommended taking into account modern challenges and on the basis of parameters such as ratio of the annual increase in the balance values of primary fuel and energy resources to the volume of their production, share of natural gas in the balance structure of primary fuel and energy resources, implementation of investment programs by fuel and energy sectors, change in the specific energy intensity of GDP, prices and etc.
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Date submitted2019-03-21
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Date accepted2019-04-30
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Date published2019-08-23
Actual and Forecast Impact Assessment of Earthquakes on the Global Economic System
- Authors:
- T. P. Skufina
- S. V. Baranov
- V. P. Samarina
Problem of strong earthquakes impact on the global economic system is considered. Geoscientists suggest that increase in Earth's seismicity is highly unlikely, but experts in economic geography say that existing facts indicate increase in seismic risk for economic systems. Using the example of an earthquake in the Tahoku region (Japan, 2011), a comprehensive assessment of economic consequences of a strong earthquake is presented as a part of analysis of three blocks of statistical information: 1) macroeconomic indicators of Japan; 2) stock market indicators; 3) industry indicators of the global economy. Results of the assessment pointed to a new feature of strong earthquakes effects in economically developed regions of the world: globalization processes are spreading regional effects of large earthquakes throughout the world economic system. To understand the magnitude of strong earthquakes problem, estimate of world economy loss from a probable earthquake near the United States, similar to Tahoku, is given. It was established that economic losses would be 2.6 times greater: a drop in the global S&P Global 1200 index would be about 15 %. The farther in time this probable earthquake protects from the Tahoku earthquake, the more globalization will increase losses.
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Date submitted2019-01-01
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Date accepted2019-03-03
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Date published2019-06-25
Strategic approach to assessing economic sustainability objects of mineral resources sector of Russia
The article gives a new definition of economic systems (ES) stability with its distinct strategic content. The main approaches to assessment of sustainability, based on the use of strategic cards, including Balanced Scorecard (BSC), are considered. Synchronous management of effectiveness, risks and chances of the ES exhausts the agenda of managing economic sustainability of ES when it operates in the face of a wide range of challenges. BSC in mineral resources sector (MRS) can be built during the aggregation of BSC by industry and individual enterprises. The use of 4 ´ 6 matrix formalism is proposed as the main tool for modeling economic sustainability of the ES.
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Date submitted2018-07-02
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Date accepted2018-09-04
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Date published2018-12-21
Strategic Planning of Arctic Shelf Development Using Fractal Theory Tools
- Authors:
- V. S. Vasiltsov
- V. M. Vasiltsova
The paper justifies the necessity to utilize new methods of strategic planning in oil and gas field exploitation in the Arctic shelf during the implementation of high technology diversified model of development for oil and gas companies (OGC) based on principles and tools of fractal theory. It has been proved that despite its challenging conditions the Arctic represents not only resource potential of the country and a guarantee of national safety, but also a key driver of market self-identification and self-organization of OGCs. Identified and analyzed problems in institutional procurement of shelf development and utilized methods of strategic planning and project management, both on the levels of state and corporate governance, demonstrate that reductive approach of the fractal theory allows to take into account diversification of heterogeneous multicomponent project models, which can be reduced to a single management decision with inverse iterations of neural network modelling. Suggested approach is relevant for strategic planning not only on the stage of investment portfolio justification, but also for identification and assessment of project risks; ranking of projects according to the order of their implementation; back and - forth management (monitoring and supervision) and project completion. It has been detected that such basic properties of the fractal as self-similarity, recurrence, fragmentation and correlation between all fractal dimensions allow to systematize chaotically changing values of market parameters in the Arctic shelf development project, which provides an opportunity to forecast market development with minimal prediction errors.
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Date submitted2017-10-29
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Date accepted2017-12-31
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Date published2018-04-24
Risk assessment of accidents due to natural factors at the Pascuales – Cuenca multiple-use pipeline (Ecuador)
- Authors:
- Dzh. Zambrano
- S. V. Kovshov
- E. A. Lyubin
The natural aspects of the accident risk at the Pascuales – Cuenca multiple-use pipeline (Ecuador) are analysed in the paper. The Russian Methodological recommendations for the quantitative analysis of accident risks at hazardous production plants of oil trunk pipelines and oil product trunk pipelines issued in 2016 are used as a methodological framework due to relatively poorly defined evaluation mechanism for natural factors of accidents at oil trunk pipelines in the most widespread international accident risk assessment methodologies. The methodological recommendations were updated to meet the environmental conditions of oil pipelines of Latin America. It was found that the accidents due to natural factors make up approximately 15 % of cases at oil trunk pipelines in Ecuador. Natural geographical features of the areas surrounding the main Ecuadorian Pascuales–Cuenca oil trunk pipeline and its relatively short length allow defining three zones along the line in terms of the accident risk: lowland coastlines, high plateaus, and foothills. Calculations and analysis revealed that the maximum predicted specific frequency of accidents is characteristic of the lowland seaside area. The evidence showed that physical and chemical properties of soils and significant seismic activity are the root causes of failures.
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Date submitted2015-12-22
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Date accepted2016-02-13
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Date published2016-12-23
Risk of injuries among coal mine workers and its hysteresis
- Authors:
- Yu. Parkhanski
The paper gives an overview of employment in coal mining, levels of extraction and injuries among the coal mine operators in Poland over a span of time from 1954 through to 2010. The injury indicators, such as the incidence rate, severity and the generalized loss index, have been assessed for a period of coal mining sector restructuring from 1993 to 2010. Diverging trends have been revealed, resulting in a need to extend the time span of the analysis. Analysis of records from 1954 to 2010 has shown a multiple cyclicity of trends of change in the values used to derive coefficients. The definition of the Injury Risk has been justified, along with a new way for its representation and its interpretation as a new method with account of the previous studies. Based on this method the injuries at the coal mines of Poland during a period of their restructuring have been investigated with analyzed database expansion to include records from 1954 to 2010.As a result a new dependency, namely the injury risk hysteresis, has been identified.
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Date submitted2015-08-11
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Date accepted2015-10-06
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Date published2016-04-22
Problems development of the offshore oil and gas fields deposits
- Authors:
- V. M. Vasiltsova
Based on the fact that the development of offshore fields that contain huge reserves of hy-drocarbons, is a key area to overcome the negative trends in the oil and gas industry. The article identifies ways to improve the organization and management of the development of the Arctic shelf from a methodological and practical point of view. Three groups of problems of increase of efficiency of interaction of oil and gas companies to governments and companies from other countries: 1) Institutional (taxation, production sharing agreements, concession regime and others.); investment (extension of the list of investment risks and methodical study of their principles); innovation (creation of a new generation of oil and gas equipment, marine oil and gas innova-tion clusters) and the ways to solve them.
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Date submitted2014-12-10
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Date accepted2015-02-20
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Date published2015-12-25
Opencast mine parameters sensitivity analysis at preliminary study of a mining project
- Authors:
- S. I. Fomin
- E. I. Bazarova
The article describes sensitivity analysis, aimed at variables dependence detection: to what extent open cast mine ultimate efficiency or performance will be affected when one of the key input variables is changed. The stronger the dependence effect, the higher the project implementation risk. The sensitivity analysis objective is demonstrated – principle factors identification – critical variables, capable of having a serious influence on the project implementation results, and impact verification of progressive (single) factorial changes. Sensitivity analysis in its content is a single-factor analysis. Output, as a basic performance indicator of an open cast mine, characterizes mine development intensity and is determined by mining-engineering and economic factors. It is proved that the impact degree from various parameters on the open cast mine output is characterized by elasticity ratio. The project indicators sensitivity analysis, which was carried out, allowed to establish the impact degree that various parameters have on the open cast mine output, which takes place in a high-angle ore deposit, characterized by elasticity ratio.
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Date submitted2014-11-07
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Date accepted2015-01-07
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Date published2015-10-26
The concept of reducing the risks of potash mines flooding caused by groundwater inrush into excavations
- Authors:
- V. P. Zubov
- A. D. Smychnik
Results of the analysis of factors influencing the probability of accidental groundwater inrush into mine workings of salt (potash, potassium and magnesium) mines are given in the article. The cases of the potash mine flooding that occurred in different countries with developed mining industry are given. It is shown that at the present technical and scientific level of solving this problem the unexpected groundwater inrush in potash mines usually results in the shutdown of the enterprise and negative ecological consequences. It is pointed out that the underground waters flow into the mines through water-conducting fractures of either natural or technogenic origin which location and influence on a mine was almost impossible to predict at the design stage under existing regulations. The concept of reducing the risks of potash mine flooding caused by underground waters in-rush is formulated. Administrative and technical measures which allow reducing the risks of potash mine flooding caused by groundwater inrush into the excavations are considered.
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Date submitted2009-10-18
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Date accepted2009-12-10
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Date published2010-09-22
Factors of geodynamic risk in exploration оf the Bovanenkovsk oil-gas condensate field аt the Jamal peninsular
Geological-structural peculiarities of territory are considered; factors of human impact on geological environment and their geoecological consequences while field development are systematized; the concept of geodynamic monitoring as a tool of maintenance of operational reliability of gas producing facilities is offered.
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Date submitted2009-10-20
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Date accepted2009-12-25
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Date published2010-09-22
Scientific-methodical foundation for geodynamic safety of oil and gas objects
- Authors:
- Yu. O. Kuzmin
It was shown on example of a number of deposits that space contemporaneity of emergency situations at wells and pipeline systems to fault zones finds its natural explanation within the concepts of existence of SD processes in such zones. In such situation it is essential to conduct very thoughtful system of diagnostics of crust fields with fluctuation deformation characteristics. For that purpose follow-up realization of three interconnected procedures must be conducted: detailed and measurement-assured monitoring (geodynamic test-area), complex several-variant interpretation of results of the monitoring and selection of different scenarios of possible negative contour, determination of the level of geodynamic risk, forecasting the environmental, social and economic consequences, and formulating strategies for preventive arrangements.
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Date submitted2009-10-01
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Date accepted2009-12-02
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Date published2010-09-22
Specific manifestations of tectonic and seismic activity in Kuzbass
- Authors:
- A. I. Ekimov
- S. V. Tsirel
The conducted observations demonstrated the substantial growth and variation of nature of tectonic and seismic activity in Kuzbas. Growth of geodynamic risks is marked. Methods for study of observable processes are suggested.
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Date submitted2009-10-18
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Date accepted2009-12-09
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Date published2010-09-22
Influence of blocky-hierarchy structure of geological medium on the forming of natural and technogenic geodynamic fields in the North-West part of the Amur geoblock
- Authors:
- I. Yu. Rasskazov
- B. G. Saksin
On the example of the South-Argun uranium ore district of Zabaikalie consideration is given to the interaction of regional and local fields of stresses. The district includes a number of deposits prone to rock bursts. The performed analysis contains data on recent geodynamics of the explored part of the Amur geoblock as well as on geomechanical and geologo-structural materials of Tulukuev caldera and of Antey deposit. It is shown that with the use of the M.A. Sadovsky relationship the indices of local structural forms of a row are subjected to unified laws of deformation and fracturing. Conclusion was made that at the beginning of deposit exploitation the direction of action of stress field within rock mass conformed to regional one, and then it considerably changed under influence of large-scale mining operations.
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Date submitted2009-10-12
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Date accepted2009-12-29
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Date published2010-09-22
Types and mechanisms of geodynamic hazard in mineral deposits mining and exploitation of buried and surface engineer constructions
- Authors:
- A. N. Shabarov
It is shown that major emergencies in mineral deposits mining and in exploitation of buried and surface engineer constructions are attributed to active faults. Classification of hazardous zones has been developed. The mechanisms of influence of geodynamic hazard in coal mines and pipeline exploitation were determined. The technology of reduction of geodynamic risk was suggested.
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Date submitted2009-08-06
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Date accepted2009-10-29
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Date published2010-02-01
Trends in using technology to improve pipeline hydrotransport
- Authors:
- N. V. Golovachev
This paper is devoted to reviewing the most promising directions of development of hydrotransport in the current time. The further improvements of proposals hydrotransport are considered hereinafter. An analysis of technology and means to ensure the effective functioning of hydrotransport systems have been carried out. An algorithm of selection new research in the field hydrotransport is proposed.
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Date submitted2008-11-23
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Date accepted2009-01-05
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Date published2009-12-11
The economic mechanism of project risk management in development of oil and gas resources
- Authors:
- E. A. Krainova
Management decisions efficiency in well construction projects depends on the control of the worked out planning taking into consideration expected risks, rapid reaction on plan vs fact deviations and adjustment to course of works. Economic assessment of well construction risks offers an opportunity to find adequate managerial decisions for prevention of possible design deviations and to submit respective recommendations for construction of new wells to be placed in operation.
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Date submitted2008-11-08
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Date accepted2009-01-26
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Date published2009-12-11
Principles optimization of expenses for the labour protection of the mining enterprises
Classification of damage from accidents and crashes is given. Procedure optimization expenses for a labour protection and definition of economically sound risk of accidents and crashes is offered. The estimation of economic efficiency of personnel development serving the self-propelled mining equipments on ore mine «Northern» of industrial complex «Pechenga Nikel» is carried out.