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Date submitted2023-11-10
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Date accepted2024-06-03
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Date published2025-02-25
Enhancing the interpretability of electricity consumption forecasting models for mining enterprises using SHapley Additive exPlanations
- Authors:
- Pavel V. Matrenin
- Alina I. Stepanova
The objective of this study is to enhance user trust in electricity consumption forecasting systems for mining enterprises by applying explainable artificial intelligence methods that provide not only forecasts but also their justifications. The research object comprises a complex of mines and ore processing plants of a company purchasing electricity on the wholesale electricity and power market. Hourly electricity consumption data for two years, schedules of planned repairs and equipment shutdowns, and meteorological data were utilized. Ensemble decision trees were applied for time series forecasting, and an analysis of the impact of various factors on forecasting accuracy was conducted. An algorithm for interpreting forecast results using the SHapley Additive exPlanation method was proposed. The mean absolute percentage error was 7.84 % with consideration of meteorological factors, 7.41 % with consideration of meteorological factors and a load plan formulated by an expert, and the expert's forecast error was 9.85 %. The results indicate that the increased accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting, considering additional factors, further improves when combining machine learning methods with expert evaluation. The development of such a system is only feasible using explainable artificial intelligence models.
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Date submitted2023-11-15
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Date accepted2024-09-24
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Date published2024-12-25
Development and validation of an approach to the environmental and economic assessment of decarbonization projects in the oil and gas sector
- Authors:
- Nadezhda A. Sheveleva
This article addresses the problem of selecting a priority decarbonization project for an oil and gas company aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The wide range of decarbonization options and assessment methods prompted the development of a comprehensive ranking system for project selection. This system incorporates both internal and external factors of project implementation, a two-stage algorithm that filters out unsuitable projects taking into account sustainable development goals, and a quantitative evaluation approach using absolute and relative indicators. The proposed system evaluates decarbonization projects by considering not only the reduction of emissions in both absolute and relative terms, but also the broader environmental, social, and economic aspects relevant to the oil and gas company and the national economy. It includes a ranking mechanism for identifying priority projects and integrates carbon regulation incentives and green taxonomy tools into the economic assessment for more precise comparative analysis. The quantitative assessment in absolute terms involves a specialized net present value calculation, which accounts for revenue from both carbon credit sales and the potential sale of new low-carbon products, if applicable. The proposed assessment provides for targeted analysis of specific performance indicators, such as the cost per unit of emissions reduced, tax and social security contributions per unit of emissions reduced, energy efficiency improvements, and other indicators used for additional assessments of projects under otherwise equal conditions.
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Date submitted2022-04-07
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Date accepted2023-04-21
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Date published2023-08-28
Development of a new assessment system for the applicability of digital projects in the oil and gas sector
Digital transformation is one of the global trends that has covered most sectors of the economy and industry. For oil and gas companies, the introduction of digital technologies has become not just a trend, but one of the factors for ensuring competitiveness and maintaining a stable position in the market in a rapidly changing macro environment. At the same time, despite the positive effects achieved, digital transformation is a complex process from the point of view of implementation and is associated with high technological, financial, and economic risks. The work aims to develop and test a new system for evaluating the applicability of digital projects in the oil and gas sector. The research methodology includes the application of the Gartner curve, methods of expert assessments, and tools for assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects. The developed assessment system is based on a comprehensive accounting of four components: the level of digital maturity of the company; compliance of the implemented technology with the goals and objectives of the organization; the level of reliability of the implemented technology; the level of innovation of the implemented project. Particular attention is paid to the practical testing of the proposed methodology based on the evaluation of a digital project implemented by a Russian oil and gas company.
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Date submitted2022-09-30
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Date accepted2023-04-03
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Date published2024-02-29
Optimization of the location of a multilateral well in a thin oil rim, complicated by the presence of an extensive gas cap
- Authors:
- Кirill О. Тomskii
- Mariya S. Ivanova
The specific share of the reserves of hard-to-recover hydrocarbon raw materials is steadily growing. The search for technologies to increase the hydrocarbon recovery factor is one of the most urgent tasks facing the oil and gas industry. One of the methods to expand the coverage of oil reserves and increase oil recovery is to use the technology of drilling multilateral wells with a fishbone trajectory. In the Russian Federation, the most branched well was drilled in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at the Srednebotuobinskoye oil and gas condensate field. The main object of development is the Botuobinsky horizon (Bt reservoir). About 75 % of the geological reserves of the reservoir are concentrated in a thin oil rim with an average oil-saturated layer thickness of 10 m with an extensive gas cap. This circumstance is one of the main complicating factors in the development of the Srednebotuobinskoye oil and gas condensate field. For such complex wells, one of the most important design stages is to determine the optimal location of the fishbone well in an oil-saturated reservoir. The article shows the results of sector modeling in the conditions of the Srednebotuobinskoye field to determine the optimal location of multilateral wells using Tempest simulator.
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Date submitted2021-04-26
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Date accepted2021-07-27
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Date published2021-10-21
Study of the dynamics for gas accumulation in the annulus of production wells
Accumulation of associated petroleum gas in the annulus is one of the negative factors that impede the intensification of mechanized oil production. An increase in annular gas pressure causes growth of bottomhole pressure, a decrease in back pressure to the formation and the inflow of formation fluid. In addition, accumulation of gas in the annulus leads to displacement and a decrease in the liquid level above the submersible pump. Insufficient level of the pump submersion (rod or electric submersible) causes a number of complications in the operation of mechanized production units associated with overheating of the elements in pumping units. Therefore, the development of technologies for optimizing the gas pressure in the annulus is relevant. Method for calculating the intensity of gas pressure increase in the annulus of production wells operated by submersible pumps has been developed. Analytical dependence for calculating the time interval of gas accumulation in the annulus, during which the dynamic level decreases to the pump intake, is obtained. This value can be used to estimate the frequency of gas withdrawal from the annulus using compressors. It has been found that the rate of increase in annular gas pressure in time increases non-linearly with a rise in the gas-oil ratio and a decrease in water cut, and also linearly increases with a rise in liquid flow rate. Influence of the operating (gas-oil ratio) and technological (value of the gas pressure maintained in the annulus) factors on the flow rate of the suspended reciprocating compressor driven by the beam engine, designed for forced withdrawal and redirection of the annular gas into the flow line of the well is analyzed.
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Date submitted2020-09-09
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Date accepted2021-03-29
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Date published2021-09-20
Developing features of the near-bottomhole zones in productive formations at fields with high gas saturation of formation oil
The article studies the formation features of the bottomhole zones in productive formations during operation of production wells in the north of the Perm Territory. Their distinctive feature is the high gas saturation of formation oil. The most widely used parameter in Russian and world practice – the skin factor was used as a criterion characterizing the state of the bottomhole zone. Analysis of scientific publications has shown that one of the main problems of applying the skin factor to assess the state of bottomhole zones is the ambiguity of interpretations of its physical meaning and the impossibility of identifying the prevailing factors that form its value. The paper proposes an approach to identifying such factors in the conditions of the fields under consideration, based on multivariate correlation-regression analysis. Choice of this tool is due to the complexity of the processes occurring in the “formation – bottomhole zone – well” system. When describing complex multifactorial processes, the chosen method demonstrates a high degree of reliability. For a large number of wells in the region, significant material was collected and summarized, including the results of determining the skin factor (1102 values) during hydrodynamic investigations, as well as data on the values of various geological and technological indicators, which can probably be statistically related to the value of the skin factor. A series of multidimensional mathematical models has been built; the skin factor was used as a predicted parameter, and data on the values of geological and technological indicators were used as independent indicators. Analysis of the constructed models is a key stage of this study. Set of parameters included in the multidimensional models, sequence of their inclusion and contribution to the total value of the achieved determination coefficient as the main indicator for the performance of the constructed models were studied. It has been established that the main factor influencing the state of the bottomhole zone is oil degassing. Significant differences in the formation features of the skin factor in the terrigenous and carbonate sediments at the fields under consideration have been determined.
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Date submitted2019-03-17
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Date accepted2019-05-21
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Date published2019-08-23
Impact of External Factors on National Energy Security
- Authors:
- V. L. Ulanov
- E. Yu. Ulanova
The article examines both external and internal threats to national energy security, formulates the tasks of increasing energy security, discloses modern challenges, as well as measures to level them. In recent years, Russian economy has felt the growing influence of external threats and risks: unfair competition in world markets, high politicization of energy issues, and attempts to prevent Russia from monetizing national energy reserves. Influence of the use of renewable energy sources on national energy security, growth of liquefied natural gas production, stricter environmental requirements, changes in the demand for petroleum products, and introduction of anti-Russian sanctions are analyzed. The influence of internal risks is no less significant: quality of hydrocarbon reserves in the Russian Federation is declining, effectiveness of geological exploration is insufficient, and the share of hard-to-recover reserves is increasing. Energy security assessments are recommended taking into account modern challenges and on the basis of parameters such as ratio of the annual increase in the balance values of primary fuel and energy resources to the volume of their production, share of natural gas in the balance structure of primary fuel and energy resources, implementation of investment programs by fuel and energy sectors, change in the specific energy intensity of GDP, prices and etc.
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Date submitted2018-07-15
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Date accepted2018-09-07
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Date published2018-12-21
Justification of rational methods for provision of air to faces of operating coal mines of Vietnam during deepening of mines
- Authors:
- S. G. Gendler
- Tkhe Kha Nguen
Based on the analysis of the mining and geological conditions for developing coal deposits in Vietnam, the existing mining safety regulations, the application of methods for calculating the air supply of working and development faces using the methane factor and modern methods of mathematical modeling of the ventilation of mines threr was developed the procedure for analyzing the efficiency of air distribution management considering the proposed indicator - energy efficiency coefficient for ventilation systems, determined by the efficiency of air use and energy consumption. Relations have been obtained that determine the relationship between the aerodynamic resistance of negative regulators, the number of simultaneously developed working and development faces, the performance of main ventilation fans and the consumed electric power.
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Date submitted2017-09-10
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Date accepted2017-11-10
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Date published2018-02-22
Research of heat generation indicators of gas engines
- Authors:
- O. N. Didmanidze
- A. S. Afanasev
- R. T. Khakimov
A comprehensive strategy for reviving the production of mining industry equipment and ensuring its competitiveness includes the wide use of gas engines for various purposes. Experimental studies of the working cycle of a gas engine are one of the main tasks in determining the heat generation characteristics. To this end, indicator charts were recorded in various modes, which were subjected to analysis in order to determine the key parameters characterizing intra-cylinder processes. According to the experimental program, the maximum cycle pressure, the rate of pressure build-up, the heat generation characteristic, the first heat generation phase, the duration of the second combustion phase, and the effect of the ignition advance angle for the ignition period were determined. The results of an experimental study of the influence of gas engine working process with allowance for the change in the ignition advance angle for the ignition period are described and the parameters of the maximum cycle pressure, the rate of pressure build-up, and the heat generation characteristics are determined. In the processing of data, integral charts are constructed, the working cycle parameters are calculated, and the dynamics of the engine heat generation is determined.
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Date submitted2016-09-06
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Date accepted2016-11-13
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Date published2017-02-22
Justified selection of a seam degassing technology to ensure safety of intensive coal mining
- Authors:
- S. V. Slastunov
- E. P. Yutyaev
The paper contains main aspects of methodological approach to objective analytic assessment of maximum permissible output of the mine faces from the viewpoint of gas factor. Analytic forecast is centered around the assessment of methane inflow into the face area from all possible sources, based on fundamental physical laws, modern tools of mathematical modeling and in-situ tests of main properties and state parameters of the gas-bearing coal formation. Objective and reliable estimation of permissible outputs is a starting point for justified selection of a seam degassing technology, that has to be based on time factor and predicted value of gas recovery from a coal seam to a degassing well. Recommendations have been formulated on the selection of degassing technology for the coal seam «Boldyrevsky» of the Kirov mine, based on the use of cutting-edge technological schemes (hydraulic fracture, carried out from development workings, etc.), successfully implemented on the mentioned site.
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Date submitted2014-11-27
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Date accepted2015-01-15
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Date published2015-10-26
Socio-economic potential of large-scale projects to develop offshore oil and gas: risks and stakeholder expectations
- Authors:
- A. E. Cherepovitsyn
The development of the Arctic shelf is a strategic long-term objective of the energy development of the Russian Federation. At the present time, resource and economic potential of offshore oil and gas development projects is huge. However, it is constrained by the complexity of developing offshore oil and gas resources due to climatic, geological and technological conditions. In addition, the current unstable situation with world oil prices is also a constraint on largescale involvement in the industrial development of offshore oil and gas resources. The aim of the research is to determine socioeconomic potential of large-scale projects to develop oil fields in the Arctic shelf of Russia. The article presents the peculiarities of developing offshore fields, which are characterized by severe climatic conditions, high environmental risks, unique technological solutions, lack of infrastructure in coastal areas. A comparative analysis of projects to develop land and shelf is performed. The regional authorities’ and businesses capability of implementing large-scale projects to develop offshore fields on economic, social and environmental criteria is identified. The positive and negative effects of socio-economic development of the territory implementing projects of hydrocarbon field development are evaluated. A schematic diagram of the socio-economic potential of hydrocarbon resources development projects reflecting the opportunities and risks of such projects from the perspective of key stakeholders is developed. A set of strategic objectives to successfully implement projects in the Arctic shelf of Russia are proposed. The findings of the research can be used by the departments of energy, industry and mineral resources in the preparation of long-term strategic development programs for the oil and gas industry.
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Date submitted2014-11-18
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Date accepted2015-01-04
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Date published2015-10-26
A new stage in the development of the european natural gas market as a reflection of transition to national state capitalizm
- Authors:
- N. G. Privalov
- T. B. Li
This article is devoted to the analysis of a situation and tendencies of development in the European natural gas market. The evolution of «energetic doctrine» models – from domination of great state monopolies to a competitive energetic doctrine – has been happening for the last 60 years. «The new global energetic doctrine» which includes state and interstate regulation strengthening is being formed now. An aggravation of contradictions in the natural gas market is a manifestation of a new stage in the mixed economy formation – the national state capitalism.
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Date submitted2013-07-27
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Date accepted2013-09-03
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Date published2014-03-17
Gas balance definition of working area with face zone isolation
- Authors:
- V. V. Smirnyakov
The article describes the methods for gas balance definition of working area with face zone isolation from mined-out space, that have allowed to change the air distribution in face zone and to determine the part of evolved gas from bed and marked bed.
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Date submitted2013-07-26
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Date accepted2013-09-22
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Date published2014-03-17
Production of slate gas
- Authors:
- R. D. Magomet
In article economic, technical and ecological aspects of development and development of production of natural gas from slate breeds are considered. The comparative analysis of experience of production of slate gas is carried out to the USA, EEC, Russia.
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Date submitted2009-09-07
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Date accepted2009-11-21
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Date published2010-06-25
Role of industrial out-movement in natural resources development of USSR in the 1920-1930th years
- Authors:
- I. V. Voloshinova
Migration politics is the main part of economic and social development of the country. State regulation of migration flows in Russia is a problem, which considers a lot of factors including the size of the territory, the scheme of resettlement, the length of border, the peculiarities of development of separate regions, labor market and etc. At regulation of migration flow such problems as rationalization of area distribution, effective usage of labour resources, formation of labour market and market lodging, increasing of qualification level of population are considered. Migration plays an important role of national politics and is one of priorities of government. This article considers the bases of rational resettlement and usage of labour resources in development of natural recourses.
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Date submitted2008-11-29
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Date accepted2009-01-30
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Date published2009-12-11
World experience in power industry reforming in a format of fuel-energy comlex
- Authors:
- A. Y. Nikolaeva
The paper highlight the most valuable for Russia economically developed countries experience of power industry reformation. There are prerequisites, goals and tasks of reformation, made transformations essence and their results and consequences.
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Date submitted2008-11-11
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Date accepted2009-01-20
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Date published2009-12-11
Management of cost effectiveness models of industrial user power supply (with specific reference to Кemerovo region)
- Authors:
- S. M. Nikitenko
- A. A. Tucsin
This article describes general points of wholesale electricity market and retail electricity markets functioning during restructuring of Russian Power system. The payment scheme that supposes making contract with guaranteeing energy supplying company in retail electricity markets is described, there are also components of retail electricity markets and the scheme of weight-average unregulated price translation. Further the article determines requirements for industrial companies that want to go out to wholesale electricity market. There are also merits and demerits of going out to wholesale electricity market by making contract with energy supplier or going out without any assistance. The changes of payment in wholesale electricity market are shown. There are recommendations based on the analysis of the given information that helps to choose more efficient model energy supplying of industrial customer according to the consuming volume and the connection scheme to outer network system. The brief description of wholesale electricity market participants of Kemerovo region is given in the article.
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Date submitted2008-11-21
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Date accepted2009-01-21
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Date published2009-12-11
Potential of russian Federal agency of state reserves in forming oil and oil products reserves system
- Authors:
- M. T. Kharisova
The article is dedicated to the problem of setting up strategic oil and oil products reserves which is necessary for ensuring national energy security. It is necessary to form a profound program of organizational, technical, technological, economic and financial measures aimed at implementation of this direction of state energy policy.
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Date submitted2008-11-21
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Date accepted2009-01-03
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Date published2009-12-11
Financial conglomerates: opportunities for cooperation with mining enterprises
- Authors:
- K. A. Shakhpazov
In this article it is argued whether there are significant opportunities for cooperation between financial conglomerates and the enterprises of the mining industry. The activities of financial conglomerates are not investigated thoroughly yet, as the alliances of that kind are of the relatively recent emergence and are now at the stage of rapid development. Their interactions with other industries have not been deeply researched either. Since the financial conglomerates have major influence on the modern world economical environment, it seems necessary to analyze the probable effect they may trigger in the strategic branch of Russian economy. This theme is particularly interesting nowadays, as the economical crisis demands for the search of new managerial solutions, including the financing sphere.
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Date submitted2008-11-12
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Date accepted2009-01-14
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Date published2009-12-11
Electronic commerce and its influence on business
- Authors:
- N. I. Sattarova
- G. A. Prudinsky
Electronic commerce can give new possibilities to any firm in any industrial sector. It can lead to change of the existing markets: the new markets can appear, and old – to disappear. A key condition of successful introduction of electronic commerce is increase of professional qualities of employees.
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Date submitted2008-11-02
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Date accepted2009-01-17
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Date published2009-12-11
Problems of development of the diamond complex on company «ALROS»
- Authors:
- V. M. Vasiltsova
- A. K. Belov
Diamond complex – one of the economy sectors, the kept potential of the expanded reproduction in the conditions of crisis. Russia, along with the republic of South Africa, Australia, Zaire, Botswana, Angola and Namibia is included into number of seven largest diamond-mining countries of the world and takes the second place in the world on volume of extraction of diamonds, being the world leader on stocks of diamond raw materials. Reserves of increase of efficiency at the separate enterprises and branch as a whole are revealed. Problems of strengthening of position of object of research on internal and a foreign market are defined.
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Date submitted2008-11-08
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Date accepted2009-01-26
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Date published2009-12-11
State customers as the target market segment of natural resources complex
- Authors:
- Y. N. Vasilyuev
- O. A. Marinina
State customer is one of the target segments in industrial marketing. There is a great demand for goods and services from the side of this segment. Thus, many enterprises plan their strategies paying attention to this fact. The article is devoted to the problems, which enterprises of the mining industry and its correlating branches have to deal targeting at the segment of state customers.