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Date submitted2023-11-10
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Date accepted2024-06-03
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Date published2025-02-25
Enhancing the interpretability of electricity consumption forecasting models for mining enterprises using SHapley Additive exPlanations
- Authors:
- Pavel V. Matrenin
- Alina I. Stepanova
The objective of this study is to enhance user trust in electricity consumption forecasting systems for mining enterprises by applying explainable artificial intelligence methods that provide not only forecasts but also their justifications. The research object comprises a complex of mines and ore processing plants of a company purchasing electricity on the wholesale electricity and power market. Hourly electricity consumption data for two years, schedules of planned repairs and equipment shutdowns, and meteorological data were utilized. Ensemble decision trees were applied for time series forecasting, and an analysis of the impact of various factors on forecasting accuracy was conducted. An algorithm for interpreting forecast results using the SHapley Additive exPlanation method was proposed. The mean absolute percentage error was 7.84 % with consideration of meteorological factors, 7.41 % with consideration of meteorological factors and a load plan formulated by an expert, and the expert's forecast error was 9.85 %. The results indicate that the increased accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting, considering additional factors, further improves when combining machine learning methods with expert evaluation. The development of such a system is only feasible using explainable artificial intelligence models.
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Date submitted2024-06-12
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Date accepted2024-07-18
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Date published2024-07-26
Development of parameters for an industry-specific methodology for calculating the electric energy storage system for gas industry facilities
- Authors:
- Ivan S. Tokarev
The issue of determining the main parameters of electric energy storage systems – power and energy intensity – is being considered, the determination of which is a fundamentally important task when introducing such devices into the power supply systems of enterprises for both technical (technological) and economic reasons. The work analyzes problems that can be solved by installing electricity storage systems at gas industry facilities. An industry-wide methodology has been developed for calculating the parameters of an electricity storage system based on traditional methods and methods aimed at minimizing the standardized cost of electricity with adaptation to the conditions of the gas industry. A distinctive feature of the presented methodology is the ability to determine the power and energy intensity of electricity storage systems when performing several functions. The methodology was tested at a typical gas industry facility – the Yarynskaya compressor station of OOO Gazprom Transgaz Ukhta, a characteristic feature of which is an autonomous power supply system. An example is given of calculating the electricity storage normalized cost using an improved LCOS indicator, which takes into account the effect of changing the fill factor of the electrical load schedule on the amount of gas consumption by a power plant for its own needs. To confirm the economic efficiency of introducing electricity storage systems calculated using the above methodology, calculations of the integral effect, net present value and efficiency index are presented.
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Date submitted2023-03-14
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Date accepted2023-06-20
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Date published2023-07-19
Forecasting planned electricity consumption for the united power system using machine learning
The paper presents the results of studies of the predictive models development based on retrospective data on planned electricity consumption in the region with a significant share of enterprises in the mineral resource complex. Since the energy intensity of the industry remains quite high, the task of rationalizing the consumption of electricity is relevant. One of the ways to improve control accuracy when planning energy costs is to forecast electrical loads. Despite the large number of scientific papers on the topic of electricity consumption forecasting, this problem remains relevant due to the changing requirements of the wholesale electricity and power market to the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to support management decisions in the process of planning the volume of electricity consumption. To realize this, it is necessary to create a predictive model and determine the prospective power consumption of the power system. For this purpose, the collection and analysis of initial data, their preprocessing, selection of features, creation of models, and their optimization were carried out. The created models are based on historical data on planned power consumption, power system performance (frequency), as well as meteorological data. The research methods were: ensemble methods of machine learning (random forest, gradient boosting algorithms, such as XGBoost and CatBoost) and a long short-term memory recurrent neural network model (LSTM). The models obtained as a result of the conducted studies allow creating short-term forecasts of power consumption with a fairly high precision (for a period from one day to a week). The use of models based on gradient boosting algorithms and neural network models made it possible to obtain a forecast with an error of less than 1 %, which makes it possible to recommend the models described in the paper for use in forecasting the planned electricity power consumption of united power systems.
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Date submitted2022-10-14
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Date accepted2022-12-13
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Date published2023-02-27
Carbon capture and storage: net zero contribution and cost estimation approaches
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) are a combination of necessary and promising technologies that can help reduce CO2 emissions, which are not used on a large scale due to the high cost of solutions. This article aims to review and analyze carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in terms of their net zero contribution and cost estimates. The study identified a wide range of cost estimation methods that can be applied to CCS projects and revealed such issues as a lack of standardization, limited data, and cost data variability. Still, several common trends were found, including the classification of CCS adopters into low-cost and high-cost industries, cost estimation by CCS step (capture, transportation, storage) and industry (power generation, other sectors), and calculation of relative indices to make comparisons with other decarbonization options. The results of the study can serve as a foundation for developing approaches to estimating the costs of CCS in Russia, which are necessary for planning government support measures and involving businesses in the implementation of these initiatives.
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Date submitted2019-05-30
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Date accepted2019-09-04
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Date published2020-02-25
Prospects for industrial methane production in the mine n.a. V.M.Bazhanov using vertical surface wells
The estimated methane resources in the coal stratum of Donbass are 798.5 billion m 3 , including 119.5 billion m 3 in the Donetsk-Makeevsky area. Such significant potential implies that methane can be used not only for industrial production and energy purposes but also as a commodity for the chemical industry. However, in practice, commercial production of methane from coal seams, as is done in the fields of the USA, Canada, India, and China, is not carried out, and methane, obtained as a by-product, is utilized for ensuring the safety of the main technological processes for coal mining. The main reasons for this are the difficult mining and geological conditions of bedding, low thickness and permeability, which does not allow to separate methane production into an independent type of activity due to its low profitability, especially with the use of new technologies based on hydraulic fracturing of coal seams. The assessment of the possibility of industrial methane production in the mine n.a. V.M.Bazhanov in the Donetsk-Makeevsky area of Donbass, which reserves equal to 23.7 billion m 3 , showed that a significant part of the methane reserves is concentrated in coal seams and interlayers with a gas content of 18.5-20.7 m 3 /m 3 . Moreover, in the host rocks, methane is practically in a liberated state. This circumstance makes possible the commercial production of methane for its utilization from the unloaded rock mass by wells drilled from the surface, without the use of hydraulic fracturing technology. The paper discusses the technology of methane extraction by a degassing well drilled from the surface into a coal-bearing stratum unloaded from rock pressure in a mining field of the 4th eastern face of the m 3 seam of the mine n.a. V.M.Bazhanov and its subsequent use as the fuel of an electric generator. It is shown that over the entire period of operation of the pilot well, the volume of actually produced methane exceeded the design value by 23 %, and the cost of the gas produced amounted to 1535 rubles per 1000 m 3 , which is more than 3 times lower than the market price for natural gas for consumers in the Russian Federation. This made it possible to make a conclusion about the possibility of industrial extraction of mine methane using vertical surface wells for its subsequent utilization in power plants, which does not imply the usage of hydraulic fracturing technology.
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Date submitted2018-05-07
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Date accepted2018-07-10
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Date published2018-10-24
Justification of economic benefits of arctic LNG transportation by sea
Russian Arctic is the largest exporter of domestic natural gas, which brings significant income to the federal budget. The major share of natural gas extracted in the Arctic is transported via pipelines in the direction of European countries. For a number of reasons EU is continuously reducing its consumption of Russian natural gas, among other things by increasing the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG). All this is happening against the background of global markets refocusing from pipeline gas to LNG. An obvious solution here would be to increase LNG production in the Russian Arctic with its subsequent transportation by sea. Taking into account remote location of Arctic gas fields from the main sales markets, there is a need for comparative cost analysis of transportation via pipelines and LNG tankers. The authors developed a method of assessing the costs of pipeline and sea transportation under comparable conditions. Calculations have been made for gas transportation to Germany, Italy, Turkey and China. As a result, it has been demonstrated that sea transportation of 1,000 m 3 of natural gas is cheaper than pipeline transportation by the average value of 106.3 USD (–40.2 %) across all the routes in question. Performed calculations prove the economic benefits of sea transportation of Arctic LNG to the existing and potential markets for natural gas. Such results are justified by the need of rational replacement of pipeline gas by LNG in European markets (especially in Southern Europe, where LNG has a greater competitive advantage) and increasing export of liquefied natural gas to the Asia-Pacific Region. Suggested measures will allow to reduce the costs of sea LNG transportation, which will give Arctic natural gas a competitive edge on the global and regional gas markets.
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Date submitted2018-05-22
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Date accepted2018-07-04
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Date published2018-10-24
Cost assessment of gold ore deposits adjusted for capital investment
- Authors:
- A. Yu. Zaitsev
The paper focuses on the problems of geologic and economic assessment of mineral deposits. Existing methods have certain advantages and disadvantages, but always rely on unified assessment criteria that fail to take into account specific parameters of each deposit. The author proposes a method of quick and simple cost assessment of gold ore deposits based on ore reserves data. Suggested approach allows to evaluate a true price of gold ore deposits that takes into account field preparation and development costs, as well as to calculate threshold (recommended) amount of investment. Besides that, the method permits to assess the contribution that mineral reserves and resources make to the cumulative market price of the mining company. The method is based on the analysis of empirical data from actual purchases of gold ore (and associated metals) deposits made by Polymetal International PLC. The results of statistical research are incorporated in a formula of threshold deposit price taking into account field preparation and development costs. Comparison between deposit prices obtained from actual purchase deals and forecast results demonstrates high convergence rate (R = 0.97). The greatest error in the forecast results is attributed to insufficient attention to the geographical position of deposits, existence of infrastructure and relevant facilities. The method has been tested on three purchases of gold ore assets made by Polymetal International PLC and demonstrated high convergence with actual deal prices.
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Date submitted2014-12-24
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Date accepted2015-02-17
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Date published2015-12-25
Problem of forestfund cadastral value determination
- Authors:
- V. F. Kovyazin
- A. Yu. Romanchikov
For several decades, Russian scientists cannot solve the problem of cadastral valuation of forest lands, which occupy two thirds of the country area. This evaluation is especially important in the terms of market relations for the calculation of charges for use of forest resources, a significant part of which is leased. Originally, cadastral valuation of forestland was planned to be conducted according to Faustmann’s formula, proposed by German economist in the mid-nineteenth century, but it has not found practical application due to the lack of certain data. In the modern period the issue of forestland valuation is escalated and scientists have proposed their own versions of the cadastral value of forestlands. We investigated a number of forestland cadastral evaluation reports from various regions of Russia. Different researchers propose to use a specific indicator of cadastral cost (UPCS), but the methods of calculation of this indicator are different for all the evaluators. Respectively, the UPCS values for each region are significantly different too. Years of research into this problem allowed us to propose a method of forestland cadastral evaluation. In the calculations, the shortcomings of previous research are taken into account and the value of income from harvested timber, its current growth in plantings under the age of ripeness as well as the income from the collection of food resources (mushrooms and berries) are included in the evaluation. In the calculations, lands should be differentiated between coniferous and deciduous forests, as the cost of timber and the yield of food resources are significantly different. The proposed method has allowed establishing the ratio of income of forestland from timber and food resources. Food resources can give more income to the society than the wood itself.
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Date submitted2009-10-05
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Date accepted2009-12-05
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Date published2010-09-22
Control of rock mass state in mining the sections at mines оf the Vorkutaugol JST: up-to-date practice
- Authors:
- O. V. Yamenko
- I. E. Plisko
The article briefly outlines the methods and measures used at mines of the Vorkutaugol JSC to control the stress strain state of rock massif. These measures help to increase face load and to ensure mine safety.
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Date submitted2009-08-16
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Date accepted2009-10-29
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Date published2010-02-01
Definition of dependent cadastral value estimation indicators of urban land sections (on the example of Kostomuksha)
- Authors:
- O. Yu. Lepikhina
The work is devoted to the analyze of the connection between indices of urban parcels cadastral value. By using several mail factors composite analyze of urban parcels was done. With the help of statistic methods distribution laws of indices were determined. As a result correlation coefficients were calculated and dependent indices were exposed. In the end of the research the main question was answered: is it right to use analyze of hierarchy method for calculating weights of the indices as it is done in the methods of urban area state cadastral valuation?
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Date submitted2009-08-17
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Date accepted2009-10-25
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Date published2010-02-01
The valuation of cost of the mining company in the reorganization
- Authors:
- D. M. Dmitrieva
- T. V. Ponomarenko
There are different approaches and methods of valuation of cost of the company. Valuation of cost of the mining companies differs from a valuation of the others by some features. The most important of them is necessity of valuation mineral resources belonging to it. In work valuation of cost of the mining company is considered (for example, JSC «SOBR»). Company cost is evaluated with the positions of the two approaches: the cost and profitability, with allowance for the features inherent in mining branch. The problems arising at valuation of cost of the mining company are formulated.
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Date submitted2008-11-23
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Date accepted2009-01-30
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Date published2009-12-11
The estimate of the utilization’s efficiency of the production waste products, which appeared as a result of the preservation of the environment measures
- Authors:
- E. M. Pronin
Nowadays the problems of the stable growth of mineral and source of raw materials and fuel and energy complex industries are attached great importance to, since it influences the country social-economic condition. In its turn the development of the mining industry requires opening up new lands, which are especially vulnerable to different kinds of anthropogenous and technogenous factors. The changes in the state of economic system have excluded the lowering expenditure by the economy of the production scale. The typical features of a new economy became the progress of free competition and intensive demonopolization. At the same time for the mining industry it is significant that large-scale enterprises should be the foundation of many cities economies of the Russian Federation. For the way out of a system crisis it is necessary to change the strategy – to alter not only the condition of the system, but its management. The formation of the mining complexes permits to use sources of raw materials of the exploited deposits in the proper way, to process waste products of the basic production into the commodity output, to raise the efficiency and cut costs of the preservation of the environment measures from concentration waste products, exhaust solutions, gases, warm water harmful influence on the environment. The practical use of the production waste products of the mining complexes is unprofitable and makes sense only because of its opportunity partially compensating the aggregate investments for the preservation of the environment. The estimate of the utilization s efficiency of the production waste products has made.