-
Date submitted2023-11-10
-
Date accepted2024-06-03
-
Date published2025-02-25
Enhancing the interpretability of electricity consumption forecasting models for mining enterprises using SHapley Additive exPlanations
- Authors:
- Pavel V. Matrenin
- Alina I. Stepanova
The objective of this study is to enhance user trust in electricity consumption forecasting systems for mining enterprises by applying explainable artificial intelligence methods that provide not only forecasts but also their justifications. The research object comprises a complex of mines and ore processing plants of a company purchasing electricity on the wholesale electricity and power market. Hourly electricity consumption data for two years, schedules of planned repairs and equipment shutdowns, and meteorological data were utilized. Ensemble decision trees were applied for time series forecasting, and an analysis of the impact of various factors on forecasting accuracy was conducted. An algorithm for interpreting forecast results using the SHapley Additive exPlanation method was proposed. The mean absolute percentage error was 7.84 % with consideration of meteorological factors, 7.41 % with consideration of meteorological factors and a load plan formulated by an expert, and the expert's forecast error was 9.85 %. The results indicate that the increased accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting, considering additional factors, further improves when combining machine learning methods with expert evaluation. The development of such a system is only feasible using explainable artificial intelligence models.
-
Date submitted2024-02-01
-
Date accepted2024-05-02
-
Date published2024-06-18
Methodology for managing energy development of production facilities in the gas industry
- Authors:
- Anatolii A. Shapovalo
The current stage of Russia's development is characterized by dynamic changes in the operating conditions of gas industry enterprises, which leads, among other things, to significant adjustments in approaches to the development of energy production facilities. The article examines on the system level the ways to improve energy supply, taking into account the goals and objectives of the development of production facilities from the conditions of solving a single technological problem of the gas industry – high-quality gas supply to consumers. The optimal functioning of energy supply systems, taking into account the peculiarities of technological processes at production facilities, presupposes the development models coordination of production facilities energy complexes with the gas industry enterprises parameters based on an integrated unified information space at all stages of their life cycle. The structure of production facility energy complex and the connections of its elements with related systems are justified taking into account the purposes of their creation and the requirements for production facilities. Problem solving for each system element as well as the exchange of information between equivalent systems is done on the basis of a developed hierarchy of optimization problems adjusted depending on the type of tasks of energy supply improvement of a production facility. Determining the values of parameters and indicators of energy complexes, as well as optimizing the lists and content of work to improve the energy supply of production facilities, is planned to be carried out in accordance with the methodology under consideration using a set of mathematical models.
-
Date submitted2022-11-06
-
Date accepted2022-11-29
-
Date published2022-12-29
Technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation fuel and energy complex
- Authors:
- Oleg V. Zhdaneev
The review to achieve technological sovereignty of the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) in the ongoing geopolitical situation is presented in the article. The main scope has been to identify the key technology development priorities, restrictions and internal resources to overcome these utilizing the developed by the author the innovative methodology that consists of novel approaches to calculate level of local content, digitalization, business continuity andinteractions with military-industrial complex. Some organizational changes have been proposed to intensify the development of hi-tech products for the FEC and related industries, including establishment of the state committee for science and technology and the project office of lead engineers for the critical missing technologies. Two successful examples to utilize the described in the paper methodology is presented: the first domestic hydraulic fracturing fleet and polycrystalline diamond compact cutter bit inserts.
-
Date submitted2021-03-31
-
Date accepted2021-09-29
-
Date published2021-10-21
Methodology of modeling nonlinear geomechanical processes in blocky and layered rock masses on models made of equivalent materials
- Authors:
- Boris Yu. Zuev
The research purpose is to develop a methodology that increases the reliability of reproduction and research on models made of equivalent materials of complex nonlinear processes of deformation and destruction of structured rock masses under the influence of underground mining operations to provide a more accurate prediction of the occurrence of dangerous phenomena and assessment of their consequences. New approaches to similarity criterion based on the fundamental laws of thermodynamics; new types of equivalent materials that meet these criteria; systems for the formation of various initial and boundary conditions regulated by specially developed computer programs; new technical means for more reliable determination of stresses in models; new methods for solving inverse geomechanical problems in the absence of the necessary initial field data have been developed. Using the developed methodology, a number of complex nonlinear problems have been solved related to estimates of the oscillatory nature of changes in the bearing pressure during dynamic roof collapse processes; ranges of changes in the frequency of processes during deformation and destruction of rock mass elements, ranges of changes in their accelerations; parameters of shifts with a violation of the continuity of the rock mass under the influence of mining: secant cracks, delaminations, gaping voids, accounting for which is necessary to assess the danger of the formation of continuous water supply canals in the water-protection layer.
-
Date submitted2020-05-13
-
Date accepted2020-06-24
-
Date published2020-10-08
Barriers to implementation of hydrogen initiatives in the context of global energy sustainable development
Modern trends in the global energy market linked to the Sustainable Development Goals often lead to the adoption of political decisions with little basis in fact. Stepping up the development of renewable energy sources is an economically questionable but necessary step in terms of its social and ecological effects. However, subsequent development of hydrogen infrastructure is, at the very least, a dangerous initiative. In connection with mentioned above, an attempt to examine hydrogen by conducting an integral assessment of its characteristics has been made in this article. As a result of the research conducted, the following conclusions concerning the potential of the widespread implementation of hydrogen in the power generation sector have been made: as a chemical element, it harms steel structures, which significantly impedes the selection of suitable materials; its physical and volume characteristics decrease the general efficiency of the energy system compared to similar hydrocarbon solutions; the hydrogen economy does not have the necessary foundation in terms of both physical infrastructure and market regulation mechanisms; the emergence of widely available hydrogen poses a danger for society due to its high combustibility. Following the results of the study, it was concluded that the existing pilot hydrogen projects are positive yet not scalable solutions for the power generation sector due to the lack of available technologies to construct large-scale and geographically distributed infrastructure and adequate international system of industry regulation. Thus, under current conditions, the risks of implementing such projects considerably exceed their potential ecological benefits.
-
Date submitted2019-03-17
-
Date accepted2019-05-21
-
Date published2019-08-23
Impact of External Factors on National Energy Security
- Authors:
- V. L. Ulanov
- E. Yu. Ulanova
The article examines both external and internal threats to national energy security, formulates the tasks of increasing energy security, discloses modern challenges, as well as measures to level them. In recent years, Russian economy has felt the growing influence of external threats and risks: unfair competition in world markets, high politicization of energy issues, and attempts to prevent Russia from monetizing national energy reserves. Influence of the use of renewable energy sources on national energy security, growth of liquefied natural gas production, stricter environmental requirements, changes in the demand for petroleum products, and introduction of anti-Russian sanctions are analyzed. The influence of internal risks is no less significant: quality of hydrocarbon reserves in the Russian Federation is declining, effectiveness of geological exploration is insufficient, and the share of hard-to-recover reserves is increasing. Energy security assessments are recommended taking into account modern challenges and on the basis of parameters such as ratio of the annual increase in the balance values of primary fuel and energy resources to the volume of their production, share of natural gas in the balance structure of primary fuel and energy resources, implementation of investment programs by fuel and energy sectors, change in the specific energy intensity of GDP, prices and etc.
-
Date submitted2014-11-18
-
Date accepted2015-01-04
-
Date published2015-10-26
A new stage in the development of the european natural gas market as a reflection of transition to national state capitalizm
- Authors:
- N. G. Privalov
- T. B. Li
This article is devoted to the analysis of a situation and tendencies of development in the European natural gas market. The evolution of «energetic doctrine» models – from domination of great state monopolies to a competitive energetic doctrine – has been happening for the last 60 years. «The new global energetic doctrine» which includes state and interstate regulation strengthening is being formed now. An aggravation of contradictions in the natural gas market is a manifestation of a new stage in the mixed economy formation – the national state capitalism.
-
Date submitted2009-09-07
-
Date accepted2009-11-21
-
Date published2010-06-25
Role of industrial out-movement in natural resources development of USSR in the 1920-1930th years
- Authors:
- I. V. Voloshinova
Migration politics is the main part of economic and social development of the country. State regulation of migration flows in Russia is a problem, which considers a lot of factors including the size of the territory, the scheme of resettlement, the length of border, the peculiarities of development of separate regions, labor market and etc. At regulation of migration flow such problems as rationalization of area distribution, effective usage of labour resources, formation of labour market and market lodging, increasing of qualification level of population are considered. Migration plays an important role of national politics and is one of priorities of government. This article considers the bases of rational resettlement and usage of labour resources in development of natural recourses.
-
Date submitted2008-11-03
-
Date accepted2009-01-16
-
Date published2009-12-11
The economic mechanism of realization of the policy in power savings sphere
- Authors:
- I. I. Kashtanova
In article priority directions in the field of power savings are considered. On an example of the largest oil and gas companies experience of increase of power efficiency and possibility of its application in the Russian conditions is analysed. The basic directions of ecological efficiency are considered.
-
Date submitted2008-11-11
-
Date accepted2009-01-20
-
Date published2009-12-11
Management of cost effectiveness models of industrial user power supply (with specific reference to Кemerovo region)
- Authors:
- S. M. Nikitenko
- A. A. Tucsin
This article describes general points of wholesale electricity market and retail electricity markets functioning during restructuring of Russian Power system. The payment scheme that supposes making contract with guaranteeing energy supplying company in retail electricity markets is described, there are also components of retail electricity markets and the scheme of weight-average unregulated price translation. Further the article determines requirements for industrial companies that want to go out to wholesale electricity market. There are also merits and demerits of going out to wholesale electricity market by making contract with energy supplier or going out without any assistance. The changes of payment in wholesale electricity market are shown. There are recommendations based on the analysis of the given information that helps to choose more efficient model energy supplying of industrial customer according to the consuming volume and the connection scheme to outer network system. The brief description of wholesale electricity market participants of Kemerovo region is given in the article.
-
Date submitted2008-11-29
-
Date accepted2009-01-30
-
Date published2009-12-11
World experience in power industry reforming in a format of fuel-energy comlex
- Authors:
- A. Y. Nikolaeva
The paper highlight the most valuable for Russia economically developed countries experience of power industry reformation. There are prerequisites, goals and tasks of reformation, made transformations essence and their results and consequences.
-
Date submitted2008-11-21
-
Date accepted2009-01-21
-
Date published2009-12-11
Potential of russian Federal agency of state reserves in forming oil and oil products reserves system
- Authors:
- M. T. Kharisova
The article is dedicated to the problem of setting up strategic oil and oil products reserves which is necessary for ensuring national energy security. It is necessary to form a profound program of organizational, technical, technological, economic and financial measures aimed at implementation of this direction of state energy policy.
-
Date submitted2008-11-08
-
Date accepted2009-01-08
-
Date published2009-12-11
The main targets of strategic planning of the Russian vertically-integrated oil-gas companies
- Authors:
- A. V. Zhimirova
The article discusses main goals and targets of strategic planning in oil companies considering the example of leading vertically-integrated oil-gaz companies. The impact of oil industry on the country’s macroeconomic indices is shown. Besides, main directions of big companies’ activity are analyzed. Special corporate features considered in the companies’ strategic plans should be correlated with the State Energy strategy.
-
Date submitted2008-11-21
-
Date accepted2009-01-03
-
Date published2009-12-11
Financial conglomerates: opportunities for cooperation with mining enterprises
- Authors:
- K. A. Shakhpazov
In this article it is argued whether there are significant opportunities for cooperation between financial conglomerates and the enterprises of the mining industry. The activities of financial conglomerates are not investigated thoroughly yet, as the alliances of that kind are of the relatively recent emergence and are now at the stage of rapid development. Their interactions with other industries have not been deeply researched either. Since the financial conglomerates have major influence on the modern world economical environment, it seems necessary to analyze the probable effect they may trigger in the strategic branch of Russian economy. This theme is particularly interesting nowadays, as the economical crisis demands for the search of new managerial solutions, including the financing sphere.
-
Date submitted2008-11-12
-
Date accepted2009-01-14
-
Date published2009-12-11
Electronic commerce and its influence on business
- Authors:
- N. I. Sattarova
- G. A. Prudinsky
Electronic commerce can give new possibilities to any firm in any industrial sector. It can lead to change of the existing markets: the new markets can appear, and old – to disappear. A key condition of successful introduction of electronic commerce is increase of professional qualities of employees.
-
Date submitted2008-11-02
-
Date accepted2009-01-17
-
Date published2009-12-11
Problems of development of the diamond complex on company «ALROS»
- Authors:
- V. M. Vasiltsova
- A. K. Belov
Diamond complex – one of the economy sectors, the kept potential of the expanded reproduction in the conditions of crisis. Russia, along with the republic of South Africa, Australia, Zaire, Botswana, Angola and Namibia is included into number of seven largest diamond-mining countries of the world and takes the second place in the world on volume of extraction of diamonds, being the world leader on stocks of diamond raw materials. Reserves of increase of efficiency at the separate enterprises and branch as a whole are revealed. Problems of strengthening of position of object of research on internal and a foreign market are defined.
-
Date submitted2008-11-08
-
Date accepted2009-01-26
-
Date published2009-12-11
State customers as the target market segment of natural resources complex
- Authors:
- Y. N. Vasilyuev
- O. A. Marinina
State customer is one of the target segments in industrial marketing. There is a great demand for goods and services from the side of this segment. Thus, many enterprises plan their strategies paying attention to this fact. The article is devoted to the problems, which enterprises of the mining industry and its correlating branches have to deal targeting at the segment of state customers.