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Date submitted2023-11-10
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Date accepted2024-06-03
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Date published2025-02-25
Enhancing the interpretability of electricity consumption forecasting models for mining enterprises using SHapley Additive exPlanations
- Authors:
- Pavel V. Matrenin
- Alina I. Stepanova
The objective of this study is to enhance user trust in electricity consumption forecasting systems for mining enterprises by applying explainable artificial intelligence methods that provide not only forecasts but also their justifications. The research object comprises a complex of mines and ore processing plants of a company purchasing electricity on the wholesale electricity and power market. Hourly electricity consumption data for two years, schedules of planned repairs and equipment shutdowns, and meteorological data were utilized. Ensemble decision trees were applied for time series forecasting, and an analysis of the impact of various factors on forecasting accuracy was conducted. An algorithm for interpreting forecast results using the SHapley Additive exPlanation method was proposed. The mean absolute percentage error was 7.84 % with consideration of meteorological factors, 7.41 % with consideration of meteorological factors and a load plan formulated by an expert, and the expert's forecast error was 9.85 %. The results indicate that the increased accuracy of electricity consumption forecasting, considering additional factors, further improves when combining machine learning methods with expert evaluation. The development of such a system is only feasible using explainable artificial intelligence models.
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Date submitted2023-10-22
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Date accepted2024-03-05
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Date published2024-08-26
The mechanism and thermodynamics of ethyl alcohol sorption process on activated petroleum coke
The low-quality petcoke does not find qualified application and is stockpiled at refineries or used as solid fuel. One of the promising ways to use low-quality petroleum coke is its physical or chemical activation in order to obtain a highly porous carbon material that can be used as a catalyst carrier, adsorbent, base for electrodes, etc. The possibility of using petroleum coke to produce sorbent for organic compounds was studied. The activated petroleum cake was obtained by chemical activation with KOH, a specific surface area is 1218 m2/g. Sorption of ethyl alcohol was studied at temperatures 285, 293 and 300 K. It is a physical process proceeding mainly in pores of activated petroleum coke, also sorption can be described as a reversible exothermic process. The effective Gibbs energy at a temperature of 293 K is –12.74 kJ/mol, the heat of sorption is –26.07 kJ/mol. The obtained data confirm that porous carbon material obtained from petroleum coke can be used as sorbent for ethanol at room temperature. For example, for adsorption of bioethanol from the effluent of the fermentation process or for purification of wastewater from organic compounds.
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Date submitted2022-06-28
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Date accepted2023-01-19
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Date published2023-02-27
Influence of mining rent on the efficiency of using natural potential: the paradox of plenty and its Russian specifics
- Authors:
- Arunas A. Lapinskas
The most powerful potential of Russia's natural resources is only partially realized, and determining the reasons for the insufficient efficiency of its use is a current research topic. The exploitation of mineral resources that bring mining rent (primarily oil and gas) gives rise to the so-called “paradox of plenty” (PP), which in some cases manifests itself as a significant slowdown in economic development. The purpose of the article is to clarify the signs, degree and forms of PP manifestation and related problems (“resource curse”, “oil curse”, etc.) in the Russian economy. Since the causes of these phenomena are usually associated with rent extraction and peculiarities of the institutional structure of the economy, the works of leading economists who support the theories of “rent-oriented behavior” and the role of public institutions in the process of the PP emergence were critically analyzed. To determine the signs and degree of PP manifestation and related problems, an analysis of determining the shares of oil and gas in the structure of exports, revenues from their sale in the federal budget, and oil and gas products in the structure of GDP, was made. It is concluded that there are no sufficient grounds for ascertaining clear signs of a “rent-oriented” Russian economy and a “resource curse”; important counteracting factors that refute the unambiguous conclusions about the high degree of PP impact on the Russian economy were identified. The author's interpretation of the role of public institutions, the factors of formation and forms of PP manifestation, the specifics of differential mining rent and its role in the formation of PP are proposed; options for solving problems generated by PP – directions for improving the tax system in the field of oil and gas, etc.; substantiation of the need to develop a strategic state program for diversifying the sectoral structure of the Russian economy; directions for adjusting economic policy in the field of oil and gas industry development, etc.
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Date submitted2021-03-24
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Date accepted2022-12-15
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Date published2023-08-28
Composite model of seismic monitoring data analysis during mining operations on the example of the Kukisvumchorrskoye deposit of AO Apatit
Geomechanical monitoring of the rock mass state is an actively developing branch of geomechanics, in which it is impossible to distinguish a single methodology and approaches for solving problems, collecting and analyzing data when developing seismic monitoring systems. During mining operations, all natural factors are subject to changes. During the mining of a rock mass, changes in the state of structural inhomogeneities are most clearly manifested: the existing natural structural inhomogeneities are revealed; there are movements in discontinuous disturbances (faults); new man-made disturbances (cracks) are formed, which are accompanied by changes in the natural stress state of various blocks of the rock mass. The developed method for evaluating the results of monitoring geomechanical processes in the rock mass on the example of the United Kirovsk mine of the CF AO Apatit allowed to solve one of the main tasks of the geomonitoring system – to predict the location of zones of possible occurrence of dangerous manifestations of rock pressure.
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Date submitted2022-05-12
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Date accepted2022-09-15
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Date published2022-12-29
Problem solution analysis on finding the velocity distribution for laminar flow of a non-linear viscous flushing fluid in the annular space of a well
- Authors:
- Vasiliy I. Nikitin
Modern drilling fluids are non-linear viscous media with an initial shear stress. In classical scientific works on hydromechanical modeling of drilling fluids motion in pipes and annular channels the Shvedov – Bingham approximation and Ostwald – de Waale power-law model were used, which did not fully account for behavior of technological fluids in a wide range of shear rates. This article presents a numerical solution for a mathematical model of drilling fluid motion of the three-parameter Herschel – Bulkley rheological model in the annular space of the well. The Herschel – Bulkley model in the rheological equation takes into account the presence of initial shear stress and a tendency for viscosity to change with shear rate, which distinguishes it from the Ostwald – de Waale and Shvedov – Bingham models. The target function in solving the equation of motion is the velocity distribution in the radial direction of the upward flow of the flushing fluid. The analysis of obtained solution is based on the theory of velocity profile influence on quality of cuttings removal during wellbore cleaning. Due to peculiarities of mathematical statement of the task, which supposes necessity of differential equation of motion solution, Wolfram Mathematica computational software has been used as a calculation tool. The analysis of numerical solution allowed to draw conclusions about the possibility of its application in evaluation of velocity profile when drilling fluid moves in annular space of the well. The possibility for application of modified excess coefficient as a relative quantitative parameter for evaluation of velocity profile uniformity was substantiated.
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Date submitted2020-11-16
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Date accepted2021-03-02
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Date published2021-04-26
Determination and verification of the calculated model parameters of salt rocks taking into account softening and plastic flow
The article suggests using a combination of the modified Burgers model and the Mohr – Coulomb model with the degradation of the adhesion coefficient and the increase in the friction coefficient to determine the parameters of salt rocks. A comparative analysis of long-term laboratory tests and field observations in underground mine workings with the results obtained using a calculated model with certain parameters is carried out. The parameters of the Mohr – Coulomb model with the degradation of the adhesion coefficient and the increase in the friction coefficient were obtained from the statistically processed data of laboratory tests, and the parameters of the modified Burgers model were determined. Using numerical methods, virtual (computer) axisymmetric triaxial tests, both instantaneous and long-term, were performed on the basis of the proposed model with selected parameters. A model problem is solved for comparing the behavior of the model with the data of observation stations in underground mine workings obtained from borehole rod extensometers and contour deformation marks. The analytically obtained coefficients of the nonlinear viscous element of the modified Burgers model for all the analyzed salt rocks did not need to be corrected based on the monitoring results. At the same time, optimization was required for the viscoelastic element coefficients for all the considered rocks. The analysis of the model studies showed a satisfactory convergence with the data on the observation stations. The comparative analysis carried out on the models based on laboratory tests and observations in the workings indicates the correct determination of the parameters for salt rocks and the verification of the model in general.
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Date submitted2019-03-11
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Date accepted2019-05-06
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Date published2019-08-23
Estimation Method for Vector Field Divergence of Earth Crust Deformations in the Process of Mineral Deposits Development
- Authors:
- B. T. Mazurov
- M. G. Mustafin
- A. A. Panzhin
An essential requirement for effective and safe deposit development is good geomechanical software. Nowadays software packages based on finite element method are used extensively to estimate stress-strain state of the rock mass. Their quality use can only be assured if boundary conditions and integral mechanical properties of the rock mass are known. In mining engineering this objective has always been achieved by means of experimental observations. The main source of information on initial and man-induced stress-strain state of the rock mass is natural measurement of displacement characteristics. Measurement of geodetic data (coordinates, heights, directions) in the period between alteration cycles allows to plot a field of displacement vectors for the points in question. Taken together, displacement vectors provide information on the objective stress-strain state of the Earth crust. Basing on it, strain tensors, displacement components, directions and rates of compression and tension can be calculated in the examined area. However, differential characteristics of any physical vector field – namely, curl and divergence – need to be taken into account. Divergence is a single value (scalar) associated with a single point. Vector field as a whole can be described with divergence scalar field. Divergence indicates the sign (positive or negative) of volume changes in the infinitesimal region of space and characterizes vector flux in the nearest proximity and in all directions from a given point. In the paper authors propose a method to estimate divergence using discrete geodetic observations of displacement occurring on the surface of examined territory. It requires construction of formulas that model vector field for any point of the area. It is proposed to use power polynomials that describe displacement in three directions (x, y, z). These formulas allow to estimate field vectors in any given point, i.e. to form vector tubes. Then areas of input and output cross-section, as well as divergence values are calculated. This increases the quality of geodetic observation and provides opportunities for more precise modeling of the rock mass disrupted by mining operations, using modern software packages.
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Date submitted2019-01-13
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Date accepted2019-03-04
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Date published2019-06-25
Thermodynamic model of ion-exchange process as exemplified by cerium sorption from multisalt solutions
A complex heterogeneous process of ion exchange can be defined with an isotherm-isobar equation of the chemical reaction, which describes differential affinity between the process and its effect – the law of mass action. Ion exchange includes processes accompanied by changes in the charge of ions and functional groups caused by the passing of ionic bond into covalent one. Hence isotherm equations of ion exchange for such processes must differ from conventional stoichiometric equations, but they can be obtained by classical study approaches to ion exchange equilibrium. The paper describes a new thermodynamic model, based on linearization of mass action law, modified for the ion exchange equation. The application of this model allows to define stoichiometry of ion exchange and the shape of ions adsorbed by the solid phase of ion-exchange resins, as well as to estimate equilibrium constant and Gibbs free energy of the process. Comparative analysis has been carried out for the thermodynamic model of cerium sorption in the form of anionic complex with Trilon B from a multisalt solution with ionic strength of 1 mol/kg (NaNO 3 ) under рН = 3 and temperature 298 K on a test sample of weak-base anion-exchange resin Cybber EV009. Experimental isotherm of the sorption has been obtained. Calculations of thermodynamic parameters have been performed using Langmuir, Freundlich, Dubinin – Radushkevich, Temkin and Flory – Huggins models, as well as thermodynamic model of linearized mass action law, proposed by the authors. Calculated values of the equilibrium constant and Gibbs energy – K = 9.0±0.5 and ΔrG 0 298 = –5.54±0.27 kJ/mol – characterize the sorption of EDTA cerate ions by ion-exchange resin. The shape of adsorbed ions has been defined in Stern-Helmholtz layer of CeTr, and total capacity of anion resin EV009 for EDTA cerate ions has been estimated as q ∞ = 2.0±0.1 mol/kg.
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Date submitted2009-10-15
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Date accepted2009-12-30
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Date published2010-09-22
Geotechnical monitoring in cryolite zone. Ecological or industrial safety
- Authors:
- A. P. Popov
The article contains the principal methodological points of the technology of geotechnical monitoring of engineer constructions in the cryolite zone. By way of practical example it was shown the efficiency of its application for reduction of risks in the industrial and economic activities of Gasprom Co by means of creation of numerical models of stability of ground basements and foundations, timely control of mechanical safety of buildings and constructions, qualitative substantiated numerical forecasting and potential variant modeling of aftereffects of technical decisions for stabilization of a situation. Geotechnical monitoring in contrast to the industrial production ecological monitoring is the technology for control of mechanical safety of buildings and constructions at the stages of their designing, construction and exploitation.
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Date submitted2008-11-25
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Date accepted2009-01-02
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Date published2009-12-11
Principles and methods of constructing models of contract bidding in outsourcing support-service production
- Authors:
- N. G. Voronov
We consider the principles and methods of construction contract bidding in outsourcing support-service production by the criterion of optimality of the customer, implemented with a minimum expenditure of the funds and ensure the reduction of the cost of production customers.
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Date submitted2008-10-21
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Date accepted2008-12-10
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Date published2009-12-11
Prediction and prospecting types of reflection of buried kimberlite fields in terrigenous diamond-bearing rocks
- Authors:
- V. N. Ustinov
On the basis of complex of lithologic-stratigraphic, mineralogical, facial-dynamic, paleogeomorphologic and morphogenetic features of post-kimberlitic terrigenous diamond-bearing rocks and reconstructed synchronous relief three prediction and prospecting types of reflection of buried kimberlite fields are distinguished. It is shown that ranging of diamondiferous territories to various types enables to direct exploration works to discovery of diamond deposits of the certain origin and makes possible to select proper prospecting technique. With the use of suggested criteria of research of promising territories the evaluation of diamond presence in the industrial regions of the Siberian, East-European and African-Arabian platforms is carried out.
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Date submitted2008-10-07
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Date accepted2008-12-05
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Date published2009-12-11
The application of areal technology and 3d data interpretation tem sounding when constructing the volume geoelectrical model of compound medium
Analysis of possibilities of different electrical technologies is carried out. Problems of applications of one-dimension and multidimensional inversions in the process of interpretation are discussed. Example of practical application of two- and three-dimension interpretation of electrical data in the process of ore prospecting in complicated geological media is presented. The example illustrates possibilities of electrical method as original research method, which enables to develop three-dimensional models of the medium under investigation.