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Vol 280
Pages:
122-130
In press
Article
Geology

Radon monitoring possibilities in short-term earthquake prediction

Authors:
Irina A. Kozlova1
Sergei V. Biryulin2
Anatolii K. Yurkov3
About authors
  • 1 — Ph.D. Director Institute of Geophysics, Ural Branch of the RAS ▪ Orcid
  • 2 — Ph.D. Senior Researcher nstitute of Geophysics, Ural Branch of the RAS ▪ Orcid
  • 3 — Ph.D. Leading Researcher Institute of Geophysics, Ural Branch of the RAS ▪ Orcid
Date submitted:
2026-02-24
Date accepted:
2026-06-25
Online publication date:
2026-09-02

Abstract

Analysis of the results of thirteen-year radon studies in the Southern Kuril Islands allowed us to establish a reliable relationship between tectonic events and anomalous concentrations of observed radon (VRA) extracted from the near-surface layer. Radon anomalies were compared with earthquakes of magnitude higher than 4 from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalog, which occurred within a radius of 500 km from the observation point. It was possible to divide the epicenters of tectonic events into groups that differ in distance relative to the monitoring point. Earthquakes always occur after the maximum of the preceding radon anomaly. Events of the first group belong to the near zone and are located within a radius of less than 130 km from the radon monitoring point. Events of the second group belong to the far zone and are located at a distance of more than 180 km from the radon monitoring point. The proposed method for determining the time and place of a tectonic event is the result of research. The proposed method is based on measuring the concentration of soil radon at four spatially separated points in the corners of a square with a distance between neighboring points of 180 km, which corresponds to the distance of the far zone. If an abnormal concentration of volume radon activity is detected at one of the observation stations, the presence of radon anomalies at other points is checked. If a radon anomaly is detected at least at one of the other observation points, a tectonic event is expected within six days from the moment of the maximum radon anomaly in the spatial boundaries limited to 130 km relative to the observation point where the first VRA anomaly was recorded. The proposed method is applicable for protecting specific objects in conditions of increased seismic activity. The effectiveness of the method is determined by the fulfillment of the provisions of the developed measurement methodology.

Область исследования:
Geology
Keywords:
monitoring radon earthquake precursors short-term prediction
Funding:

The work was carried out according to the State assignment of IGF UB RAS № 125032604464-7.

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