-
Date submitted2022-05-03
-
Date accepted2022-11-22
-
Date published2023-02-27
Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex
Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method.
-
Date submitted2022-03-24
-
Date accepted2022-07-21
-
Date published2022-12-29
A probabilistic study on hole cleaning optimization
- Authors:
- Seyyed Shahab Tabatabaee Moradi
Hole cleaning is considered as one of the most important drilling fluid functions. An efficient hole cleaning ensures a reliable well drilling practice with minimum troublesome problems. In this study, two main steps of hole cleaning, i.e., cuttings removal from under the bit and cuttings transport to the surface are discussed based on the drilling data of a shale formation. The traditional models for optimization of each step are presented. As the models require variety of input data, which are usually subjected to some extent of errors and uncertainties, the output of the model is also an uncertain parameter. Using Monte Carlo simulation, a simple probabilistic study was conducted to quantify the certainty level of the obtained results. Based on the result of this study, it is shown that for the proposed well, a good hole cleaning is expected. However, a more reliable decision for further hole cleaning optimization should be made considering the results of uncertainty analysis.
-
Date submitted2022-05-31
-
Date accepted2022-11-17
-
Date published2022-12-29
Estimation of the influence of fracture parameters uncertainty on the dynamics of technological development indicators of the Tournaisian-Famennian oil reservoir in Sukharev oil field
Issues related to the influence of reservoir properties uncertainty on oil field development modelling are considered. To increase the reliability of geological-hydrodynamic mathematical model in the course of multivariate matching, the influence of reservoir properties uncertainty on the design technological parameters of development was estimated, and their mutual influence was determined. The optimal conditions for the development of the deposit were determined, and multivariate forecasts were made. The described approach of history matching and calculation of the forecast of technological development indicators allows to obtain a more reliable and a less subjective history match as well as to increase the reliability of long-term and short-term forecasts.
-
Date submitted2020-06-16
-
Date accepted2020-11-09
-
Date published2020-12-29
Investigation of probabilistic models for forecasting the efficiency of proppant hydraulic fracturing technology
To solve the problems accompanying the development of forecasting methods, a probabilistic method of data analysis is proposed. Using a carbonate object as an example, the application of a probabilistic technique for predicting the effectiveness of proppant hydraulic fracturing (HF) technology is considered. Forecast of the increase in the oil production of wells was made using probabilistic analysis of geological and technological data in different periods of HF implementation. With the help of this method, the dimensional indicators were transferred into a single probabilistic space, which allowed performing a comparison and construct individual probabilistic models. An assessment of the influence degree for each indicator on the HF efficiency was carried out. Probabilistic analysis of indicators in different periods of HF implementation allowed identifying universal statistically significant dependencies. These dependencies do not change their parameters and can be used for forecasting in different periods of time. Criteria for the application of HF technology on a carbonate object have been determined. Using individual probabilistic models, integrated indicators were calculated, on the basis of which regression equations were constructed. Equations were used to predict the HF efficiency on forecast samples of wells. For each of the samples, correlation coefficients were calculated. Forecast results correlate well with the actual increase (values of the correlation coefficient r = 0.58-0.67 for the examined samples). Probabilistic method, unlike others, is simple and transparent. With its use and with careful selection of wells for the application of HF technology, the probability of obtaining high efficiency increases significantly.
-
Date submitted2015-08-03
-
Date accepted2015-10-03
-
Date published2016-04-22
The method for synthesis of power supply system topology of mineral resources enterprises on the basis of logical and probabilistic assessments
- Authors:
- B. N. Abramovich
- S. V. Baburin
A method for the synthesis of the power supply system topology of mineral resources enterprises. The expediency of using general logic probabilistic method and developed on the its basis software «ARBITR» to calculate the reliability of power supply systems. The synthesis results of power supply system topology on the example of underground mining and gas transmission systems consumers. Recommendations to improve the power supply reliability of mineral resources enterprises.