Issues related to the influence of reservoir properties uncertainty on oil field development modelling are considered. To increase the reliability of geological-hydrodynamic mathematical model in the course of multivariate matching, the influence of reservoir properties uncertainty on the design technological parameters of development was estimated, and their mutual influence was determined. The optimal conditions for the development of the deposit were determined, and multivariate forecasts were made. The described approach of history matching and calculation of the forecast of technological development indicators allows to obtain a more reliable and a less subjective history match as well as to increase the reliability of long-term and short-term forecasts.
Amid the ever-increasing urgency to develop oil fields with complex mining and geological conditions and low-efficiency reservoirs, in the process of structurally complex reservoir exploitation a number of problems arise, which are associated with the impact of layer fractures on filtration processes, significant heterogeneity of the structure, variability of stress-strain states of the rock mass, etc. Hence an important task in production engineering of such fields is a comprehensive accounting of their complex geology. In order to solve such problems, the authors suggest a methodological approach, which provides for a more reliable forecast of changes in reservoir pressure when constructing a geological and hydrodynamic model of a multi-layer field. Another relevant issue in the forecasting of performance parameters is accounting of rock compressibility and its impact on absolute permeability, which is the main factor defining the law of fluid filtration in the productive layer. The paper contains analysis of complex geology of a multi-layer formation at the Alpha field, results of compression test for 178 standard core samples, obtained dependencies between compressibility factor and porosity of each layer. By means of multiple regression, dependencies between permeability and a range of parameters (porosity, density, calcite and dolomite content, compressibility) were obtained, which allowed to take into account the impact of secondary processes on the formation of absolute permeability. At the final stage, efficiency of the proposed methodological approach for construction of a geological and hydrodynamic model of an oil field was assessed. An enhancement in the quality of well-by-well adaptation of main performance parameters, as well as an improvement in predictive ability of the adjusted model, was identified.
