Use of stochastic models for hydrodynamic analysis of water intakes operation
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- Russian State Geological Prospecting University
Abstract
The possibility to use the statistical methods for short-term forecasting was examined. Historical data of 45 years of water intake and water table observation at the Kuyulussk Natural Water Deposit (South Mangyshlak) were used. The power polynomials of dependencies between the indexes analyzed and time of exploitation were taken as the basis for calculation. It was established that, as applied for the given deposit, the temporary rows are better described by the polynomials of the fifth order (the error rate is less than 5 %).