Instrumental support for the operation of organizational and management systems

Abstract

To ensure the operation of automated control systems, a new methodology of precedent analysis is supposed to be used. The quantitative search for the situation-analogues is carried out by methods of automatic sequentially sliding review of retrospective data, presented in the form of multidimensional time series in specialized databases. Using a statistical measure of proximity between the current situation and the viewed situation, a set of quantitative precedents is selected, each of which corresponds to qualitative descriptions of the corresponding time period. The specialist obtains qualitative precedent data and selects the most plausible precedents. The situations following the precedents on the time interval form a set of precedents of the predicted situation, allowing to form a qualitatively new mathematical forecast, knowingly considering all historical experience, stored in the memory of the computer, and corrected with the knowledge and intuition of a specialist. Thus, the ideology of precedent analysis provides an opportunity to harmoniously integrate the efforts of a specialist in the field of operation and machine and to come close to the formation of hybrid intelligence technologies. The proposed concept of precedent analysis does not require additional mathematical training from an operational specialist, nor does it impose exceptionally high requirements to his personal experience. The specialist can use traditional qualitative methods of situation analysis, machine search methods already selected for him. This allows to build a new type of interface, “Friendly” to the subject specialist and satisfying the above requirements.