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multiple regression

Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Date submitted
    2021-09-22
  • Date accepted
    2022-03-24
  • Date published
    2022-04-29

Predicting dynamic formation pressure using artificial intelligence methods

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Determining formation pressure in the well extraction zones is a key task in monitoring the development of hydrocarbon fields. Direct measurements of formation pressure require prolonged well shutdowns, resulting in underproduction and the possibility of technical problems with the subsequent start-up of wells. The impossibility of simultaneous shutdown of all wells of the pool makes it difficult to assess the real energy state of the deposit. This article presents research aimed at developing an indirect method for determining the formation pressure without shutting down the wells for investigation, which enables to determine its value at any time. As a mathematical basis, two artificial intelligence methods are used – multidimensional regression analysis and a neural network. The technique based on the construction of multiple regression equations shows sufficient performance, but high sensitivity to the input data. This technique enables to study the process of formation pressure establishment during different periods of deposit development. Its application is expedient in case of regular actual determinations of indicators used as input data. The technique based on the artificial neural network enables to reliably determine formation pressure even with a minimal set of input data and is implemented as a specially designed software product. The relevant task of continuing the research is to evaluate promising prognostic features of artificial intelligence methods for assessing the energy state of deposits in hydrocarbon extraction zones.

How to cite: Zakharov L.А., Martyushev D.А., Ponomareva I.N. Predicting dynamic formation pressure using artificial intelligence methods // Journal of Mining Institute. 2022. Vol. 253 . p. 23-32. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2022.11
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Date submitted
    2020-12-24
  • Date accepted
    2021-10-18
  • Date published
    2021-12-16

Natural gas methane number and its influence on the gas engine working process efficiency

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The natural gas usage as a vehicle fuel in the mining industry is one of the priority tasks of the state. The article pays special attention to the component composition of natural gas from the point of view of its thermal efficiency during combustion in the combustion chamber of a power plant on a heavy-duty vehicle in difficult quarry conditions. For this, domestic and foreign methods for determining the main indicator characterizing the knock resistance of fuel in the combustion process – the methane number – are considered. Improvement of technical and economic indicators will be carried out by changing the composition of the gas mixture based on methane to fit the design features of the gas power plant, the methane number will be the determining indicator. A theoretical analysis of the influence of the methane number on such engine parameters as the compression ratio and the maximum speed of the flame front propagation in the second phase of combustion in the engine cylinder, expressed through the angle of rotation of the crankshaft, is presented. Based on the results of theoretical and experimental studies, the dependences of the influence of the methane number on the efficiency of the working process of the engine and its external speed characteristic were obtained.

How to cite: Didmanidze O.N., Afanasev A.S., Khakimov R.T. Natural gas methane number and its influence on the gas engine working process efficiency // Journal of Mining Institute. 2021. Vol. 251 . p. 730-737. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2021.5.12
Mining
  • Date submitted
    2019-04-30
  • Date accepted
    2019-07-16
  • Date published
    2019-10-23

Salt Rock Deformation under Bulk Multiple-Stage Loading

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The paper presents experimental justification of the possibility to use bulk multiple-stage loading to study the process of salt rock deformation in the laboratory conditions. Results of comparative tests between bulk multiple- stage and single-stage loading of salt rock samples are demonstrated. The paper contains results of research on the rate of lateral pressure and its impact on strength limit and residual strength limit of sylvinite, estimated using single- stage and multiple-stage methods. Research results demonstrate how the rate of lateral pressure impacts dilatancy boundary of salt rocks. Analysis of how the loading method influences certificate parameters of Mohr-Coulomb strength of sylvinite has been carried out. The dynamics of elastic modulus in the process of salt rock deformation is analyzed depending on the rate of lateralpressure. It is demonstrated how the method of multiple-stage loading adequately reflects the processes of salt rock de- formation and decomposition, and facilitates not only lowering impact of sample’s inner structure heterogeneities on the experimental results, but also significant reduction in the required amount of rock material.

How to cite: Pankov I.L., Morozov I.A. Salt Rock Deformation under Bulk Multiple-Stage Loading // Journal of Mining Institute. 2019. Vol. 239 . p. 510-519. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2019.5.510
Electromechanics and mechanical engineering
  • Date submitted
    2018-05-03
  • Date accepted
    2018-07-07
  • Date published
    2018-10-24

Regularities of material destruction of the impactor in repeated single punch

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The technique and the results of experiments on the study of the laws of the process of the cone-shaped tip of a freely falling impactor made of 38HM, U8, H12MF steels, subjected to typical heat treatment and additionally treated with cold, when they apply multiple (up to 10000) single impacts on granite under conditions approaching hydraulic impactor peaks. To explain the processes, we used the values of stresses σ к , arising at the contact area of the impactor and the rock, calculated using the developed mathematical model. It has been established that the process of wear of an impactor with multiple single blows proceeds in three stages separated by critical values, , which correspond to the strength characteristics of the material of the impactor demonstrated in these dynamic conditions. With a small number of strokes (n ≤ n * ) and the small size of the blunting area (stage I interaction) values σ c exceed of steel and it is exposed to local destruction at the contact site, which is recorded as a significant loss of the impactor’s mass; with n * < n ≤ n ** (stage II) the resulting stresses are not enough to destroy the material, but it is enough for its plastic deformation, accompanied by the movement of metal from the central part of the contact area to the peripheral and the destruction of part of the deformed metal by rock; with n > n ** (stage III) arising σ к do not reach the level and the decrease in the mass of the impactor is determined by the resistance of the steel to abrasion by the products of rock destruction, displaced by the impactor from the well. The treatment of impactors from all tested steels with cold leads to an increase in their wear resistance; The total depth of the holes punctured by the cold-treated H12MF steel impactor at the time of the interruption of the rock penetration is four times higher than that of the 38HM steel impactor subjected to typical heat treatment.

How to cite: Bolobov V.I., Bin L.T. Regularities of material destruction of the impactor in repeated single punch // Journal of Mining Institute. 2018. Vol. 233 . p. 525-533. DOI: 10.31897/PMI.2018.5.525
Oil and gas
  • Date submitted
    2018-01-01
  • Date accepted
    2018-03-24
  • Date published
    2018-06-22

Complex petrophysical correction in the adaptation of geological hydrodynamic models (on the example of Visean pool of Gondyrev oil field)

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The authors review a method of combined porosity and volume density correction in the process of modeling the distribution of reservoir permeability. Basing on petrophysical investigations of core samples from Bashkir fold deposits, an association between rock porosity, density and permeability has been analyzed. Significant correlation has been observed for the above mentioned parameters in porous collectors in contrast to reduced correlation for dense rocks and intervals of anomalously high poroperm characteristics. For terrigene porous collectors the authors propose a model of permeability assessment based on combined porosity and density correction. A modified model was developed for Visean pool of Gondyrev oil field, where collector permeability had been calculated as a function of rock porosity and density. The modified model has been compared to the conventional one; significant differences have been detected. In the modified version maximum permeability is associated with the southern part of the pool, whereas the conventional method points out the central part and predicts lowering permeability closer to the periphery. Geological model in the modified version is more homogenous than the conventional one and has no sharp peaks and valleys. The calculations have been made that reproduce the history of field development for both permeability volumes. Authors demonstrate that total oil production obtained using the modified model has a much better correlation with the actual data. The best results from using suggested method apply to the initial stage of development due to better convergence of high-rate wells. On the whole, comparison of two methods shows that for the purposes of production history adaptation the modified model is significantly better than the conventional one. Hence, the method of density correction allows for better justification of differences in the lithology of Visean collectors, which ultimately results in higher accuracy of data on residual oil reserves in the deposit.

How to cite: Repina V.A., Galkin V.I., Galkin S.V. Complex petrophysical correction in the adaptation of geological hydrodynamic models (on the example of Visean pool of Gondyrev oil field) // Journal of Mining Institute. 2018. Vol. 231 . p. 268-274. DOI: 10.25515/PMI.2018.3.268
Mining
  • Date submitted
    2014-11-01
  • Date accepted
    2015-01-18
  • Date published
    2015-10-26

On the design features of underground multiple gassy coal seam mining

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The analysis of the industry regulatory requirements and the world design experience of underground multiple coal seam mining is provided. The main problems of intensive longwall mining of multiple flat gassy coal seams as well as methods for determination of high rock pressure zone parameters and seams interaction are considered. The examples of a number of mines in the Kuzbass and Pechora coal basins show that the design of multiple seam mining and the choice of longwall panel parameters were often made without taking into consideration influence of surrounded seams that leads to essential complication of conditions for mining operations and decreases the technical and economic indicators of mining. The existing industry regulations do not allow considering complex influence of factors in multiple coal seams mining fully. On the basis of field, laboratory, and numeric research results it is noted that recommendations for pillar positioning in contiguous seams ensuring efficiency and safety of multiple seam longwall mining can significantly differ in case of liability of coal seams to spontaneous combustion, high natural gas content, influence of multiple seam mining onto daily surface, and difficult conditions of entries maintenance. The importance of having information on the stress-strain condition of the rock mass at a design stage and its changes in the process of multiple seam mining is shown. The need for industry regulations updating for the purpose of a more detailed definition of a form, size and a location of high rock pressure zones as well as stress parameters in these zones is noted. A set of recommendations for effective and safe multiple seam mining is developed.

How to cite: Kazanin O.I. On the design features of underground multiple gassy coal seam mining // Journal of Mining Institute. 2015. Vol. 215 . p. 38-45.
Problems in geodynamic and ecological safety in the exploration of fields of oil and das, their storage and transporta
  • Date submitted
    2009-10-11
  • Date accepted
    2009-12-26
  • Date published
    2010-09-22

The analysis of factors, that cause processes of open hole wells’ destructions of Gatchina underground gas storage reservoir and prediction of sand effects

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The peculiarities of elastic stresses in open hole wells’ of Gatchina gas storage reservoir are researched. It is revealed that in depression more than 1,5 MPa gas bearing rocks start to destroy. On the basis of studying of correlation relation between technological parameters of gas wells’ production and evacuation of sand the equations of plural regression are constructed. These equations are used to make prediction of sand evacuation at each producing gas well.

How to cite: Grishin D.V., Petukhov A.V., Petukhov A.A. The analysis of factors, that cause processes of open hole wells’ destructions of Gatchina underground gas storage reservoir and prediction of sand effects // Journal of Mining Institute. 2010. Vol. 188 . p. 207-213.