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Date submitted2020-06-16
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Date accepted2020-11-09
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Date published2020-12-29
Investigation of probabilistic models for forecasting the efficiency of proppant hydraulic fracturing technology
To solve the problems accompanying the development of forecasting methods, a probabilistic method of data analysis is proposed. Using a carbonate object as an example, the application of a probabilistic technique for predicting the effectiveness of proppant hydraulic fracturing (HF) technology is considered. Forecast of the increase in the oil production of wells was made using probabilistic analysis of geological and technological data in different periods of HF implementation. With the help of this method, the dimensional indicators were transferred into a single probabilistic space, which allowed performing a comparison and construct individual probabilistic models. An assessment of the influence degree for each indicator on the HF efficiency was carried out. Probabilistic analysis of indicators in different periods of HF implementation allowed identifying universal statistically significant dependencies. These dependencies do not change their parameters and can be used for forecasting in different periods of time. Criteria for the application of HF technology on a carbonate object have been determined. Using individual probabilistic models, integrated indicators were calculated, on the basis of which regression equations were constructed. Equations were used to predict the HF efficiency on forecast samples of wells. For each of the samples, correlation coefficients were calculated. Forecast results correlate well with the actual increase (values of the correlation coefficient r = 0.58-0.67 for the examined samples). Probabilistic method, unlike others, is simple and transparent. With its use and with careful selection of wells for the application of HF technology, the probability of obtaining high efficiency increases significantly.
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Date submitted2019-03-11
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Date accepted2019-05-11
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Date published2019-08-23
Estimate of Radial Drilling Technology Efficiency for the Bashkir Operational Oilfields Objects of Perm Krai
- Authors:
- S. V. Galkin
- A. A. Kochnev
- V. I. Zotikov
The radial drilling technology efficiency for carbonate bashkir deposits of Perm Krai is considered. The geological structure of a productive part of bashkir layer is characterized by high degree of heterogeneity that promotes while drilling radial channels involvement in development additional interlayers that earlier was not drained. During the analysis the main geological process parameters affecting drilling technology efficiency were revealed. According to the dynamics of average daily oil production growth, palettes were built to forecast additional oil production as a result of radial drilling activities. Using the pallets, it is possible to predict the total additional oil production, well operating time with the effect of radial drilling and average daily oil production growth for each year. It was found that hydrochloric acid treatments performed on wells prior to radial drilling significantly reduce the effectiveness of radial drilling technology. For such wells, the value of the correction is statistically substantiated, which reduces the predictive estimate of the increase in oil production. A model was built to assess the increase in oil production in the first year after the event and an algorithm for calculating the total additional oil production was developed using linear discriminant analysis. For the resulting model, errors are calculated that are compared with the forecast efficiency of standard methods for oil-producing enterprises. This model shows a much more accurate correspondence of forecast results to actual technology application results. The probability of the event high efficiency increases significantly with a more detailed approach to the selection of wells for radial drilling. According to the forecast methodology, the technology’s efficiency was calculated and recommendations for its implementation for the wells of the Bashkir production objects were made in the interests of an oil-producing enterprise.
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Date submitted2018-12-30
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Date accepted2019-03-01
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Date published2019-06-25
The concept of development of monitoring systems and management of intelligent technical complexes
Conceptual approaches to improving the system of monitoring and managing the functional capabilities of intelligent technical complexes of buildings and transport and technological machines of mining enterprises are defined. Criteria are proposed for the efficiency of functioning of automatic systems for controlling the movement of transport-technological machines, taking into account the probabilistic nature of system-forming factors. The scheme of scientific and methodological research on the improvement of automation systems and traffic control in the automotive transport is presented. The perspective directions of the formation of control functions for the movement of vehicles based on the use of intelligent automated systems are substantiated. The stages of the life cycle of technical systems for monitoring the movement of vehicles, taking into account the features of their operation. A technique has been developed for the optimal use of technical means of control in the field of providing control and supervisory functions in the operation of vehicles, and the dependence of determining the financial costs of maintaining their efficiency has been determined.
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Date submitted2019-01-17
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Date accepted2019-03-20
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Date published2019-06-25
Improving methodological approach to measures planning for hydraulic fracturing in oil fields
Goal of the research is development of an integrated approach to the planning of hydraulic fracturing (HF) treatment taking into account geo-technical, hydrodynamic, technological and economic criteria for the selection of wells for inclusion in the programs of HF with increasing importance of economic criteria. Stages of formation of the program for HF of the oil company are selected, systematized and analyzed. It is shown that high potential effectiveness of enhanced oil recovery method in fields with hard-to-recover reserves, on the one hand, and the complexity and high cost of application, on the other, determine the need to optimize the parameters of this business process at all stages of implementation and improve its planning methods. The priority directions for improving the hydraulic fracturing planning were justified: a clear definition of the criterion for the payback period of hydraulic fracturing activities, taking into account their technological features, improving the procedure for calculating the costs of implementing this technology and improving the reasonableness of selecting candidate wells for inclusion in the hydraulic fracturing program. Feasibility of using an additional criterion in the formation of hydraulic fracturing programs – marginal minimum cost-effective wall capacity – has been shown and a method for calculating it has been developed. The use of this criterion will allow to take into account not only technological limitations, but also limits of economic efficiency of conducting hydraulic fracturing at each specific well and, at the preliminary selection of candidate wells, exclude a priori unprofitable measures.
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Date submitted2018-11-03
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Date accepted2019-01-21
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Date published2019-04-23
Estimation of critical depth of deposits by rock bump hazard condition
- Authors:
- V. N. Tyupin
During the development of minerals by the underground method, dynamic manifestations of rock pressure occur at a certain depth, which significantly reduces the safety of mining operations. Regulatory documents prescribe at the exploration and design stages to establish the critical depth for classifying a deposit as liable to rock bumps. Currently, there are a number, mainly instrumental, methods for determining the liability of rock mass to rock bumps and methods based on the determination of physical and technical properties and the stress-strain state of rock massifs. The paper proposes a theoretical method for determining the critical depth for classifying a deposit as liable to rock bumps. A formula for determining the critical depth of the rock bump hazard condition is obtained. A mathematical analysis of the influence of the physical and technical parameters of the formula on the critical depth is carried out. Its physical and mathematical validity is substantiated. The numerical calculations of the critical depth for 17 developed fields were carried out using a simplified formula. It also provides a comparison of calculated and actual critical depth values. It is established that the variation of the actual and calculated critical depth is due to the lack of actual data on the value of the friction coefficient and parameters of fracturing of the rock mass in the simplified formula. A simplified calculation formula can be used to estimate the critical depth of a field at the survey and design stages. More accurate results can be obtained if there are actual data on fracture parameters, friction coefficients and stress concentration near the working areas.
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Date submitted2016-10-27
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Date accepted2017-01-02
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Date published2017-04-14
Chemistry as a basis for solving environmental issues
- Authors:
- V. E. Kogan
- T. S. Shakhparonova
The article summarizes over 40 years of authors’ experience in the field of physical chemistry and chemical technology of glassy state of materials. It is shown that environmental issues are caused not by Chemistry as a science but by actions of ecologically illiterate humans using its advances. It is noted that without chemistry humankind cannot live comfortably and solve existing environmental problems. In support these facts we describe several developments made by authors of this article in energy industry, high temperature machinery, glass production technology, glassy phosphate fertilizers, production of non-waste systems and complex research of physical-chemical principles of glassy oil sorbents production of organic and non-organic nature.
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Date submitted2014-06-24
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Date accepted2014-08-31
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Date published2014-12-22
Unique engineering and technology for drilling boreholes in Antarctic ice
- Authors:
- Vladimir S. Litvinenko
As the result of many years of research into the processes of the transfer of ice as a rock mass on a global scale, concerning the Antarctic ice sheet at the ultra-deep 5G borehole, a discovery has been made that is of international significance in the areas of glaciology and geodynamics. Those who created the theory of thermal and mechanical penetration into ice and loose sediments have developed unique technology and engineering processes in order to drill boreholes using thermal and mechanical methods.
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Date submitted2009-09-20
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Date accepted2009-11-29
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Date published2010-06-25
Some facts of history of training and employment of mining engineers during 20-30th years of 20th century
- Authors:
- V. G. Afanasev
The article is dedicated to the problem of training mining engineers during the most difficult Soviet period. The problem was solved with foundation of new educational institution as well as reorganization of functional ones primarily Mining Institute. Reformation of universities was justified sometimes not. Disadvantage of reformation was repression to highly qualified specialists of mining. Personnel problem was solved that allowed to increase coal and oil extraction.
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Date submitted2009-09-26
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Date accepted2009-11-23
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Date published2010-06-25
Way philosophy courses are considered essential at american technical universities
- Authors:
- M. I. Mikeshin
The paper comprises of some examples of philosophical courses delivered at three US institutes of technology, topics considered attractive for students, and professors’ answers to the questions why and how the students of these institutes should study various philosophical problems.