The radial drilling technology efficiency for carbonate bashkir deposits of Perm Krai is considered. The geological structure of a productive part of bashkir layer is characterized by high degree of heterogeneity that promotes while drilling radial channels involvement in development additional interlayers that earlier was not drained. During the analysis the main geological process parameters affecting drilling technology efficiency were revealed. According to the dynamics of average daily oil production growth, palettes were built to forecast additional oil production as a result of radial drilling activities. Using the pallets, it is possible to predict the total additional oil production, well operating time with the effect of radial drilling and average daily oil production growth for each year. It was found that hydrochloric acid treatments performed on wells prior to radial drilling significantly reduce the effectiveness of radial drilling technology. For such wells, the value of the correction is statistically substantiated, which reduces the predictive estimate of the increase in oil production. A model was built to assess the increase in oil production in the first year after the event and an algorithm for calculating the total additional oil production was developed using linear discriminant analysis. For the resulting model, errors are calculated that are compared with the forecast efficiency of standard methods for oil-producing enterprises. This model shows a much more accurate correspondence of forecast results to actual technology application results. The probability of the event high efficiency increases significantly with a more detailed approach to the selection of wells for radial drilling. According to the forecast methodology, the technology’s efficiency was calculated and recommendations for its implementation for the wells of the Bashkir production objects were made in the interests of an oil-producing enterprise.
