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Date submitted2022-05-03
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Date accepted2022-11-22
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Date published2023-02-27
Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex
Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method.
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Date submitted2022-03-24
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Date accepted2022-07-21
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Date published2022-12-29
A probabilistic study on hole cleaning optimization
- Authors:
- Seyyed Shahab Tabatabaee Moradi
Hole cleaning is considered as one of the most important drilling fluid functions. An efficient hole cleaning ensures a reliable well drilling practice with minimum troublesome problems. In this study, two main steps of hole cleaning, i.e., cuttings removal from under the bit and cuttings transport to the surface are discussed based on the drilling data of a shale formation. The traditional models for optimization of each step are presented. As the models require variety of input data, which are usually subjected to some extent of errors and uncertainties, the output of the model is also an uncertain parameter. Using Monte Carlo simulation, a simple probabilistic study was conducted to quantify the certainty level of the obtained results. Based on the result of this study, it is shown that for the proposed well, a good hole cleaning is expected. However, a more reliable decision for further hole cleaning optimization should be made considering the results of uncertainty analysis.