Assessment of investment risk in the oil industry when designing the development of oil fields of poorly explored areas

Abstract

The economic efficiency of the project when implementing investments in the extractive industries is significantly affected by geological risk, which is part of the non-systemic risk. When assessing the object, it seems the most adequate to define the geological risk as the probability that the real geological resources or reserves will be below the expected level. Considering that in the structure of the explored reserves the greater part is taken by Ci and C2 categories reserves (more than 60 %), and also a high error of the reserves confirmation and the high level of the geological risk connected with it, it is desirable to have the technology, allowing to make a fast reassessment of the reserves in case of any parameter change taking into account probabilistic nature of its value. The set of technologies considered in this work allows to analyze any series of geological models of an object or license area with any variations of calculation parameters.