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Vol 281 Iss. 1
Pages:
36-54
In press
Article
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology

Statistical modeling of metal migration in soils of oil and gas condensate fields in the north of Western Siberia

Authors:
Anatolii Yu. Opekunov1
Marina G. Opekunova2
Stepan Yu. Kukushkin3
About authors
  • 1 — Ph.D., Dr.Sci. Professor Saint Petersburg State University ▪ Orcid
  • 2 — Ph.D., Dr.Sci. Professor Saint Petersburg State University ▪ Orcid
  • 3 — Ph.D. Associate Professor Saint Petersburg State University ▪ Orcid
Date submitted:
2026-03-31
Date accepted:
2026-06-25
Online publication date:
2026-10-01

Abstract

The article examines the mechanisms of metal migration and immobilization in the soils of the Western Siberian Subarctic resulting from contamination associated with hydrocarbon development. The research is based on the analysis of 106 soil and soil solution samples for metal content (Na, Ca, K, Fe, Mn, Cd, Cr, Zn, Sr, Cu, Ni, Ba, Pb, Co, V) and petroleum hydrocarbons in the soil, collected at oil fields and background sites in the Nadym-Pur-Taz interfluve. Statistical modeling based on geochemical data was conducted using multivariate statistical methods. The first stage involved data factorization and factor interpretation, identifying drilling cuttings, formation waters, and motor vehicles as primary sources of pollution. Discriminant analysis enabled the grouping of samples based on the nature of the impact. Multivariate analysis of variance made it possible to identify the key factors governing metal mobility potential in soils. These factors were subsequently used as predictors in multiple regression analysis (MRA). MRA revealed the primary mechanisms of metal mobilization into solution: competitive sorption (Mn, Sr, Co, Pb, Cr, Ca, Ba, Zn), solution ionic strength (Na, Mn, Zn), soil alkalinization (Cr, V), and hydrophobization by petroleum hydrocarbons (Sr, Zn). It has been established that immobilization is most effective during ion-exchange sorption processes involving amorphous oxyhydroxides of Fe (Na, Ca, Mn, Sr, Zn) and Mn (Ba, Co, Cr, Pb), as well as organic matter of the humic series (Sr, Ba). A detailed characterization of metal behavior under contamination conditions is provided. It has been shown that the lateral migration of metals under the studied conditions ranges from 150 to 200 m. The reliability of multiple regression models was assessed, and internal validation was performed using experimental data. Based on an analysis of metal mobilization and immobilization mechanisms, recommendations are provided for reducing the migration potential of pollutants.

Область исследования:
Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
Keywords:
drilling cuttings formation waters competitive metal sorption soil hydrophobization metal mobilization metal immobilization
Funding:

The authors acknowledge Saint Petersburg State University for а research project (ID 159084796).

Go to volume 281

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