The purpose of research is the study of stress-strain state of marginal rock mass around the stope and predictive assessment of ore dilution with regard for changes in ore body thickness in mining thin ore deposits on the example of the Zholymbet mine. Study of the specific features of the stress-strain state development was accomplished applying the methodology based on numerical research methods taking into account the geological strength index (GSI) which allows considering the structural features of rocks, fracturing, lithology, water content and other strength indicators, due to which there is a correct transition from the rock sample strength to the rock mass strength. The results of numerical analysis of the stress-strain state of the marginal part of the rock mass using the finite element method after the Hoek – Brown strength criterion made it possible to assess the geomechanical state in the marginal mass provided there are changes in ore body thickness and to predict the volume of ore dilution. It was ascertained that when mining thin ore deposits, the predicted value of ore dilution is influenced by the ore body thickness and the GSI. The dependence of changes in ore dilution values on the GSI was recorded taking into account changes in ore body thickness from 1 to 3 m. Analysis of the research results showed that the predicted dimensions of rock failure zone around the stopes are quite large, due to which the indicators of the estimated ore dilution are not attained. There is a need to reduce the seismic impact of the blasting force on the marginal rock mass and update the blasting chart.
