The paper considers a model-oriented decision support system for environmental risk management implemented as a multilevel software system. The paper focuses on the models of risk coefficients and indices for potentially hazardous objects, and also considers some general approaches to environmental protection planning based on mathematical modeling.
One of the blocks of the software package oriented to the modeling of ecological dynamics in an industrial region is considered. Some features of existing models and software products used in the world practice are discussed. A new approach, applicable in conditions of incomplete information and insufficient statistics, is proposed. The central point of the work is a generator of scenarios of ecological dynamics, based on a suitable probabilistic combination of traditional models and expert evaluations.
The structure of the decision support system (DSSS) for the management of man-made environmental risks is presented. The basis of the developed DSS is a software package that implements mathematical and information-analytical models of the environmental dynamics of the industrial region and models of possible environmental protection measures. The considered tool can be used, in particular, for generation of scenarios of development of the ecological situation in conditions of insufficient provision with statistical data, forecasting of ecologically negative events, large accidents and catastrophes. One of the possible directions of use of the offered product is its application in ecological insurance for improvement of the corresponding normative base and calculation of insurance tariffs.
The paper presents the structure of a software package aimed at modeling the environmental dynamics of an industrial region. The tool under consideration is supposed to be used, in particular, for generating scenarios of environmental situation development in conditions of insufficient statistics when forecasting environmentally negative events, major accidents and disasters. One of the possible uses of the proposed product is its application in environmental insurance to improve the relevant regulatory framework and the calculation of insurance tariffs.
