Instrumental methods of technogenic risk management of environmentally negative events in industrial regions (the example of the Urals)
About authors
- 1 — Ural State Technical University
- 2 — Ural State Technical University
- 3 — Ural State Technical University
- 4 — Уральский государственный технический университет – УПИ
Abstract
One of the blocks of the software package oriented to the modeling of ecological dynamics in an industrial region is considered. Some features of existing models and software products used in the world practice are discussed. A new approach, applicable in conditions of incomplete information and insufficient statistics, is proposed. The central point of the work is a generator of scenarios of ecological dynamics, based on a suitable probabilistic combination of traditional models and expert evaluations.
References
- Моделирование сценариев экологической динамики региона и расчета страховых тарифов / О.И.Никонов, А.Н.Медведев, М.А.Медведева, С.В.Степанов // Записки Горного института. СПб, 2001. Т.149. С.291-293.
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