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Date submitted2022-05-03
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Date accepted2022-11-22
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Date published2023-02-27
Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex
Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method.
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Date submitted2020-05-21
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Date accepted2020-10-05
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Date published2020-11-24
Method of calculating pneumatic compensators for plunger pumps with submersible drive
- Authors:
- Eduard O. Timashev
One of the most promising ways to improve the efficiency of mechanized oil production is a plunger pump with a submersible drive, which allows obtaining harmonic reciprocating movement of the plunger. In the pumping process of well products by plunger pumps, oscillations in the velocity and pressure of the liquid in the lifting pipes occur, which lead to an increase in cyclic variable loads on the plunger, a decrease in the drive life period and the efficiency of the pumping unit. To eliminate the pulsation characteristics of the plunger pump and increase the reliability indicators of the pumping unit (in particular, the overhaul period), pneumatic compensators can be used. A method for calculating the optimal technological parameters of a system of deep pneumatic compensators for plunger pumping units with a submersible drive, based on mathematical modeling of hydrodynamic processes in pipes, has been developed. Calculations of the forming flow velocity and pressure in the lifting pipes of submersible plunger units equipped with pneumatic compensators (PC) have been carried out. Influence of the PC technological parameters on the efficiency of smoothing the oscillations of velocity and pressure in the pipes has been analyzed. Non-linear influence of the charging pressure and PC total volume on the efficiency of their work has been established. Optimal pressure of PC charging, corresponding to the minimum pressure in the tubing during the pumping cycle for the considered section of the tubing, is substantiated. Two ultimate options of PC system placement along the lifting pipes are considered. In the first option, PC are placed sequentially directly at the outlet of the plunger pump, in the second - evenly along the lift. It is shown that the first option provides the minimum amplitude of pressure oscillations at the lower end of the tubing and, accordingly, variable loads on the pump plunger. Nature of the pressure and flow velocity oscillations in the tubing at the wellhead for both options of PC placement has similar values .
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Date submitted2018-05-04
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Date accepted2018-07-23
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Date published2018-10-24
Analysis of possible enhancementof properties of VK15 material used for drilling tools
- Authors:
- Yu. A. Kurganova
- K. S. Panina
- P. S. Beshenkov
Traditionally, when drilling hard and abrasive rocks, it is recommended to use a tungsten-cobalt hard alloy VK15. The analysis of information on the possibility of improving the potential of the material has demonstrated the existence of mechanisms that provide structural transformations that enhance its strength, hardness and toughness. The use of such technology instead of traditional methods will lead to an increase in the operating efficiency and durability of the tool. During the work, experimental samples of alloy VK15 were obtained by sintering in four different modes. Then their properties were analyzed. The results of the metallographic study carried out on the «Carl Zeiss» microscope made it possible to estimate the distribution of tungsten carbide grains in cobalt bon and show the grinding of the carbide phase. Thus, with traditional sintering, the amount of tungsten carbide grains with an average size of less than 1 μm in diameter from the entire size range reaches 19.5 %, while after additional heat treatment with a holding time of 1280 °C, the value was 41.5 %; 900 °C – 59.1 %; 600 °С – 54.5 %. The maximum improvement results were the following: hardness by 18 %, a coercive force by 49 %, and crack resistance by 11 % of the traditional alloy, there were achieved at 900-1280 °C. A hypothesis has been put forward on the formation of additional structural elements not detected by the methods of optical metallography. Studies of the topology and structure of the samples on an atomic force microscope confirmed the presence of nanoscale inclusions from 20 to 40 nm (presumably tungsten carbide) in a cobalt bond.For VK15, comparative studies of properties and analysis of the microstructure of experimental samples obtained by the traditional sintering and modified technology have shown that the sintering mode at 900 °C is a priority.
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Date submitted2014-10-15
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Date accepted2014-12-30
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Date published2015-08-25
Method of controlling the temperature field on the basis of the Green's function
- Authors:
- Yu. V. Ilyushin
- I. M. Pershin
At the present stage of development of automatic control systems raises the question of maintaining the set temperature objects. The authors developed MetO-wild synthesis of nonlinear regulators to stabilize the temperature field, a uniform object of management on the basis of a given error. We obtained a function of the initial heating and the mathematical modeling of the process, analyzed the results. By creating a regulator there has been designed software and hardware programming language Pascal, which allows to simulate the behavior of temperature fields in an isotropic web. It is a simulation of the temperature of the system in different configurations: with different amounts of pulsed heating sources with relay control principle. Practical results of the research suggest the possibility of constructing silicon carbide heating element made in the form of an isotropic core.