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Date submitted2022-05-03
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Date accepted2022-11-22
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Date published2023-02-27
Development of methodology for scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises of the mineral resource complex
Theoretical and applied aspects of scenario analysis of investment projects of enterprises in the mineral resource sector of the economy are considered, its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. Taking into account the organizational and economic features of mineral resources management, a number of new modifications of the scenario analysis method, aimed at solving an urgent problem - reducing the information uncertainty in assessing the expected efficiency and risk of investment projects, are proposed. The peculiarity of the proposed new modifications is the use of the interval-probabilistic approach in the implementation of the scenario analysis procedure. This approach is based on a moderately pessimistic system of preferences in obtaining point values of the investment project initial parameters. Fishburn estimates and the hierarchy analysis method were used to reduce subjective uncertainty. The maximum likelihood values in the sense of the maximum a priori probability are used as expected estimates. An additional indicator of risk assessment, which characterizes the probability of the event that the net present value of the project will take a value less than the specified one, is proposed. When analyzing one project, this indicator is more informative than the standard deviation. A statistical hypothesis was tested on the improvement of the validity of investment decisions developed using the modified scenario analysis method compared to the standard method.
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Date submitted2008-11-24
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Date accepted2009-01-19
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Date published2009-12-11
Integrated assessment state and use of capital business entity
- Authors:
- V. P. Scobelina
There is studied the totality of the capital and property of the managing subject as the basis of its financial resources. The financial resources structure characteristics is provided. There is proposed a complex analysis scheme for the enterprise capital use including the build-up source analysis, profitability analysis and ratio analysis of the different capital types turnover. There is recommended the aggregate procedure of the capital turnover ratio analysis to the financial results of the enterprise activity including the structural logic procedures of the owned and loan capital use.