Analysis of the risk of investing in the development of a technogenic deposit

Abstract

The problem of accuracy and reliability of design solutions is a characteristic feature of the modern stage of development of all spheres of material production, including mining. The category of accuracy acts as one of the objective criteria of research results and affects them in two ways: on the one hand, it contributes to the progressive development of engineering and technology of material production, on the other hand, it plays the role of a filter, sifting out untenable scientific hypotheses, theories, and simultaneously stimulates the search for new, more objective models of the studied process. At the current stage of development of relations in the mineral markets and in connection with the need for licensing of mineral deposits, it is necessary to determine the risk of specific project decisions, which is derived from such factors as the ratio of reliability and uncertainty in the initial data; reliability of decision methods and the adequacy of evaluation criteria to real conditions. When solving the problem set in the form of a statistical model, an analysis of random variables with a conditional distribution function was carried out and a solution was obtained relative to some a priori distribution of states of the mining and technical system, minimizing the expected value of the loss function. Thus, the analysis of the risk of investing in the development of a technogenic deposit was carried out, and the feasibility of its open-pit development was determined. The necessity of increasing the accuracy, efficiency and reliability of design decisions in conditions of the market national model of economy, the stochastic nature of the initial data has been substantiated.