Risk assessment of accidents due to natural factors at the Pascuales – Cuenca multiple-use pipeline (Ecuador)
- 1 — Ph.D., Dr.Sci. Dean National Polytechnic University
- 2 — Ph.D. associate professor Saint Petersburg Mining University ▪ Orcid
- 3 — Saint Petersburg Mining University
Abstract
The natural aspects of the accident risk at the Pascuales – Cuenca multiple-use pipeline (Ecuador) are analysed in the paper. The Russian Methodological recommendations for the quantitative analysis of accident risks at hazardous production plants of oil trunk pipelines and oil product trunk pipelines issued in 2016 are used as a methodological framework due to relatively poorly defined evaluation mechanism for natural factors of accidents at oil trunk pipelines in the most widespread international accident risk assessment methodologies. The methodological recommendations were updated to meet the environmental conditions of oil pipelines of Latin America. It was found that the accidents due to natural factors make up approximately 15 % of cases at oil trunk pipelines in Ecuador. Natural geographical features of the areas surrounding the main Ecuadorian Pascuales–Cuenca oil trunk pipeline and its relatively short length allow defining three zones along the line in terms of the accident risk: lowland coastlines, high plateaus, and foothills. Calculations and analysis revealed that the maximum predicted specific frequency of accidents is characteristic of the lowland seaside area. The evidence showed that physical and chemical properties of soils and significant seismic activity are the root causes of failures.
The article is prepared with the grant supportof the Scientific Council of the Saint Petersburg Mining University based on the results of the internship and research in the National Polytechnic University of Ecuador.