2411-3336 2541-9404 Записки Горного института Journal of Mining Institute Санкт-Петербургский горный университет императрицы Екатерины ΙΙ Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University 10.31897/PMI.2021.3.15 pmi-13722 https://pmi.spmi.ru/pmi/article/view/13722 Геоэкономика и менеджмент Geoeconomics and Management Critical analysis of methodological approaches to assessing sustainability of arctic oil and gas projects Критический анализ методических подходов к оценке устойчивости арктических нефтегазовых проектов Cherepovitsyn Aleksei E. Череповицын А. Е. Cherepovitsyn Aleksei E. alekseicherepov@inbox.ru 0000-0003-0472-026X Санкт-Петербургский горный университет (Санкт-Петербург, Россия) Saint Petersburg Mining University (Saint Petersburg, Russia) Tcvetkov Pavel S. Цветков П. С. Tcvetkov Pavel S. pscvetkov@yandex.ru 0000-0002-3049-7893 Saint Petersburg Mining University (Санкт-петербург, Россия) (Saint Petersburg, Russia) Evseeva Olga O. Евсеева О. О. Evseeva Olga O. olgaevs@yandex.ru 0000-0002-1002-8061 Санкт-Петербургский горный университет (Санкт-Петербург, Россия) Saint Petersburg Mining University (Saint Petersburg, Russia) 20 09 2021 2021 249 463 479 29 07 2020 29 03 2021 20 09 2021 © Aleksei E. Cherepovitsyn, Pavel S. Tcvetkov, Olga O. Evseeva 2021 А. Е. Череповицын, П. С. Цветков, О. О. Евсеева Aleksei E. Cherepovitsyn, Pavel S. Tcvetkov, Olga O. Evseeva CC BY 4.0 https://pmi.spmi.ru/pmi/article/view/13722

Освоение углеводородных ресурсов Арктики является одной из приоритетных задач, стоящих перед экономикой Российской Федерации, однако подобные проекты несут и существенные риски для экологии близлежащих регионов. Масштабное освоение углеводородных ресурсов в Арктике должно основываться на принципах устойчивого развития, предполагающих наличие баланса между социально-экономическими преимуществами и экологическими рисками. Целью данной работы является анализ пробелов в научных знаниях по вопросам оценки устойчивости арктических нефтегазовых проектов (НГП) и систематизация ключевых проблемных элементов подобных оценок. Анализ проводился в разрезе четырех ключевых элементов, определяющих целесообразность реализации арктических НГП в контексте устойчивого развития: экономическая эффективность, общественные эффекты, экологическая безопасность и доступность технологий. Методика проведения библиометрического анализа, включающего более 15227 источников из базы Scopus за 2005-2020 гг., основана на рекомендациях PRISMA к составлению систематических обзоров и мета-анализов. Была построена карта методических проблем оценки устойчивости арктических НГП, разделенная на четыре ключевых сектора: учет факторов, определяющих устойчивость; оценка устойчивости; интерпретация результатов оценки; управление устойчивостью. Эта карта может являться основой для проведения серии точечных исследований, нацеленных на ликвидацию существующих конкретных методологических недостатков концепции устойчивого развития, применительно к арктическим НГП.

Development of hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic is one of the priority tasks for the economy of the Russian Federation; however, such projects are associated with significant risks for the environment of nearby regions. Large-scale development of hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic should be based on the principles of sustainable development, which imply a balance between socio-economic benefits and environmental risks. The purpose of this study is to analyze the gaps in scientific knowledge on the issues of assessing sustainability of Arctic oil and gas projects (OGPs) and systematize the key problematic elements of such assessments. The analysis was carried out in terms of four key elements that determine the feasibility of implementing Arctic OGPs in the context of sustainable development: economic efficiency, social effects, environmental safety and technological availability. The methodology for conducting bibliometric analysis, which included more than 15.227 sources from the Scopus database over the period of 2005-2020, was based on PRISMA recommendations for compiling systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Methodological problems of assessing sustainability of Arctic OGPs were mapped and divided into four key sectors: consideration of factors that determine sustainability; sustainability assessment; interpretation of assessment results; sustainability management. This map can serve as a basis for conducting a series of point studies, aimed at eliminating existing methodological shortcomings of the sustainable development concept with respect to Arctic OGPs.

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