2411-3336 2541-9404 Записки Горного института Journal of Mining Institute Санкт-Петербургский горный университет императрицы Екатерины ΙΙ Empress Catherine II Saint Petersburg Mining University 10.31897/pmi.2019.4.465 pmi-13222 https://pmi.spmi.ru/pmi/article/view/13222 Геоэкономика и менеджмент Geoeconomics and Management Actual and Forecast Impact Assessment of Earthquakes on the Global Economic System Фактические и прогнозные оценки влияния землетрясений на глобальную экономическую систему Skufina T. P. Скуфьина Т. П. Skufina T. P. skufina@gmail.com ФГБУН ФИЦ «Кольский научный центр Российской академии наук» (Россия) Federal Research Centre «Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences» (Russia) Baranov S. V. Баранов С. В. Baranov S. V. bars.vl@gmail.com Кольский филиал ФГБУН ФИЦ «Единая геофизическая служба Российской академии наук» (Россия) Kola Branch Federal Research Centre of «Geophysical Survey of Russian Academy of Sciences» (Russia) Samarina V. P. Самарина В. П. Samarina V. P. samarina_vp@mail.ru ФГБУН ФИЦ «Кольский научный центр Российской академии наук» (Россия) Federal Research Centre «Kola Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences» (Russia) 23 08 2019 2019 238 465 473 21 03 2019 30 04 2019 23 08 2019 © 2019 Т. П. Скуфьина, С. В. Баранов, В. П. Самарина © 2019 T. P. Skufina, S. V. Baranov, V. P. Samarina 2019 Т. П. Скуфьина, С. В. Баранов, В. П. Самарина T. P. Skufina, S. V. Baranov, V. P. Samarina Эта статья доступна по лицензии Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0) https://pmi.spmi.ru/pmi/article/view/13222

Рассматривается проблема воздействия сильных землетрясений на глобальную экономическую систему. Ученые-геологи предполагают, что усиление сейсмичности Земли весьма маловероятно, однако специалисты по экономической географии говорят, что существующие факты указывают на возрастание сейсмического риска для экономических систем. На примере землетрясения в регионе Тахоку (Япония, 2011 г.) представлена комплексная оценка экономических последствий сильного землетрясения в рамках анализа трех блоков статистической информации: 1) макроэкономических показателей Японии; 2) индикаторов фондового рынка; 3) отраслевых показателей мировой экономики. Результаты оценки указали на новую особенность последствий сильных землетрясений в экономически развитых регионах мира: процессы глобализации распространяют региональные эффекты крупных землетрясений на всю мировую экономическую систему. Для осознания масштабов проблемы сильных землетрясений приведена оценка потерь мировой экономики от вероятного землетрясения вблизи США, аналогичного Тахоку. Установлено, что экономические потери были бы в 2,6 раза больше: падение глобального индекса S&P Global 1200 составило бы около 15 %. Чем дальше по времени это вероятное землетрясение будет отстоять от землетрясения Тахоку, тем больше глобализация будет усиливать потери.

Problem of strong earthquakes impact on the global economic system is considered. Geoscientists suggest that increase in Earth's seismicity is highly unlikely, but experts in economic geography say that existing facts indicate increase in seismic risk for economic systems. Using the example of an earthquake in the Tahoku region (Japan, 2011), a comprehensive assessment of economic consequences of a strong earthquake is presented as a part of analysis of three blocks of statistical information: 1) macroeconomic indicators of Japan; 2) stock market indicators; 3) industry indicators of the global economy. Results of the assessment pointed to a new feature of strong earthquakes effects in economically developed regions of the world: globalization processes are spreading regional effects of large earthquakes throughout the world economic system. To understand the magnitude of strong earthquakes problem, estimate of world economy loss from a probable earthquake near the United States, similar to Tahoku, is given. It was established that economic losses would be 2.6 times greater: a drop in the global S&P Global 1200 index would be about 15 %. The farther in time this probable earthquake protects from the Tahoku earthquake, the more globalization will increase losses.

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