The paper presents the results of studies of the predictive models development based on retrospective data on planned electricity consumption in the region with a significant share of enterprises in the mineral resource complex. Since the energy intensity of the industry remains quite high, the task of rationalizing the consumption of electricity is relevant. One of the ways to improve control accuracy when planning energy costs is to forecast electrical loads. Despite the large number of scientific papers on the topic of electricity consumption forecasting, this problem remains relevant due to the changing requirements of the wholesale electricity and power market to the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to support management decisions in the process of planning the volume of electricity consumption. To realize this, it is necessary to create a predictive model and determine the prospective power consumption of the power system. For this purpose, the collection and analysis of initial data, their preprocessing, selection of features, creation of models, and their optimization were carried out. The created models are based on historical data on planned power consumption, power system performance (frequency), as well as meteorological data. The research methods were: ensemble methods of machine learning (random forest, gradient boosting algorithms, such as XGBoost and CatBoost) and a long short-term memory recurrent neural network model (LSTM). The models obtained as a result of the conducted studies allow creating short-term forecasts of power consumption with a fairly high precision (for a period from one day to a week). The use of models based on gradient boosting algorithms and neural network models made it possible to obtain a forecast with an error of less than 1 %, which makes it possible to recommend the models described in the paper for use in forecasting the planned electricity power consumption of united power systems.
The oil and gas industry has been an integral and fundamental sector of the Russian economy for the past few years. The main problems of this industry have traditionally been the deteriorating structure of oil reserves; depreciation of main assets; slowdown and decline in oil production. Recently these have been complicated by a number of new negative trends related to underinvestment, limited financial resources, deteriorating access to new equipment and technologies. The task of the research is to make a comprehensive assessment of hydraulic fracturing technology during well construction and to increase the recovery and intensification of hydrocarbons production. In this research, modeling techniques were used to assess the productivity of each fracture. Geophysical methods (seismic survey) were used to determine the geomechanical properties of the formation. Comprehensive assessment of hydraulic fracturing technology during well construction was carried out, which allowed to increase vertical permeability and unite disparate parts of the reservoir in practice, and to determine the development efficiency of the hydrocarbon field.
At the present stage, the development of the oil and gas industry in the Russian Federation is impossible without replenishing the raw material base, so the urgent task is to conduct investigations, prospecting and evaluation of oil and gas bearing capacity prospects in undiscovered areas. The purpose of the investigations is to analyze facies and thicknesses, choose the methodology of prospecting and exploration in reservoirs, make a comprehensive assessment of oil and gas bearing capacity prospects based on experimental investigations and construct a map of oil and gas bearing capacity prospects of the studied sediment structure. The methodology of the conducted investigations was to identify and trace zones of increased fracturing by qualitative interpretation of time seismic sections. Methods for qualitative interpretation of time seismic sections, the model of physical, chemical and geochemical criteria developed by I.A.Burlakov, gas and geochemical surveying and correlation analysis were used in the investigations. A number of prospecting criteria, established based on the analysis of reference seismic materials on well-studied areas in comparison with the results of well tests, were also used. Structural plan for forecast prospects of oil and gas bearing capacity in the studied area was made; zonal and local objects with prospects for oil and gas were identified. Graphical plotting of Eh and pH concentrations distribution and various gas and geochemical indicators allowed identifying zones of possible oil and gas accumulations and starting their detailed survey. Processing of gas and geochemical materials by means of software allowed efficient assessment of prospects for oil and gas bearing capacity of the investigated objects.
The paper presents the results of constructing effective relay protection in the power supply system of a mining and processing plant (MPP). A brief description of the MPP is given, the power supply and substitution circuits used to calculate the short-circuit currents are given. A statistical analysis of failures in the electric network of the MPP has been carried out, which makes it possible to draw conclusions about the nature of failures ranges. Analysis of the registered faults shows that a significant part of them are line-to-earth faults, which in most cases turn into multiphase short circuits, which are interrupted by overcurrent protection. In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of the relay protection, the power supply scheme of the MPP was refined and analyzed. The calculation of the short-circuit currents was made, which made it possible to calculate the settings of the relay protection and give recommendations on the place of its installation and adjustment in order to ensure the normal operation of electricity consumers. To reduce the number of failures to the cable insert on the line leaving the administrative and household complex (AHC), and to increase the reliability of power supply to consumers, it is advisable to divide the capacities of the existing 10 kV line into two parallel ones by laying a second line. It is recommended to install a current cut-off on the line outgoing to the AHC, the feasibility of the installation of which was shown by calculations. This will reduce the chance of failures to the cable gland. Data on the setting currents of overcurrent protection and current cut-off are given on the selectivity card.
