To solve the problems accompanying the development of forecasting methods, a probabilistic method of data analysis is proposed. Using a carbonate object as an example, the application of a probabilistic technique for predicting the effectiveness of proppant hydraulic fracturing (HF) technology is considered. Forecast of the increase in the oil production of wells was made using probabilistic analysis of geological and technological data in different periods of HF implementation. With the help of this method, the dimensional indicators were transferred into a single probabilistic space, which allowed performing a comparison and construct individual probabilistic models. An assessment of the influence degree for each indicator on the HF efficiency was carried out. Probabilistic analysis of indicators in different periods of HF implementation allowed identifying universal statistically significant dependencies. These dependencies do not change their parameters and can be used for forecasting in different periods of time. Criteria for the application of HF technology on a carbonate object have been determined. Using individual probabilistic models, integrated indicators were calculated, on the basis of which regression equations were constructed. Equations were used to predict the HF efficiency on forecast samples of wells. For each of the samples, correlation coefficients were calculated. Forecast results correlate well with the actual increase (values of the correlation coefficient r = 0.58-0.67 for the examined samples). Probabilistic method, unlike others, is simple and transparent. With its use and with careful selection of wells for the application of HF technology, the probability of obtaining high efficiency increases significantly.
Oil and gas producing enterprises are making increasingly high demands on well casing quality, including the actual process of injection and displacement of cement slurry, taking into account requirements for the annular cement level, eliminating possible hydraulic fracturing, with developing a hydraulic cementing program. It is necessary to prevent deep invasion of cement slurry filtrate into the formation to exclude bridging of productive layers. It is impossible to fulfill all these requirements at the same time without application of modifying additives; complex cement compositions are being developed and applied more often. Furthermore, need to adjust cement slurries recipes appears for almost every particular well. In order to select and justify cement slurries recipes and their prompt adjustment, taking into account requirements of well construction project, as well as geological and technical conditions for cementing casing strings, mathematical models of the main technological properties of cement slurries for cementing production casing strings in the Perm Region were developed. Analysis of the effect of polycarboxylic plasticizer (Pl) and a filtration reducer (fluid loss additive) based on hydroxyethyl cellulose (FR) on plastic viscosity (V), spreadability (S) and filtration (F) of cement slurries is conducted. Development of mathematical models is performed according to more than 90 measurements.
The authors review a method of combined porosity and volume density correction in the process of modeling the distribution of reservoir permeability. Basing on petrophysical investigations of core samples from Bashkir fold deposits, an association between rock porosity, density and permeability has been analyzed. Significant correlation has been observed for the above mentioned parameters in porous collectors in contrast to reduced correlation for dense rocks and intervals of anomalously high poroperm characteristics. For terrigene porous collectors the authors propose a model of permeability assessment based on combined porosity and density correction. A modified model was developed for Visean pool of Gondyrev oil field, where collector permeability had been calculated as a function of rock porosity and density. The modified model has been compared to the conventional one; significant differences have been detected. In the modified version maximum permeability is associated with the southern part of the pool, whereas the conventional method points out the central part and predicts lowering permeability closer to the periphery. Geological model in the modified version is more homogenous than the conventional one and has no sharp peaks and valleys. The calculations have been made that reproduce the history of field development for both permeability volumes. Authors demonstrate that total oil production obtained using the modified model has a much better correlation with the actual data. The best results from using suggested method apply to the initial stage of development due to better convergence of high-rate wells. On the whole, comparison of two methods shows that for the purposes of production history adaptation the modified model is significantly better than the conventional one. Hence, the method of density correction allows for better justification of differences in the lithology of Visean collectors, which ultimately results in higher accuracy of data on residual oil reserves in the deposit.